← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
79.0%
Model
78.1%
Market
1.23
Odds
+1.0
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
established · 22 UFC fightsestablished · 22 fights
STRIKING
P61
Striking Initiative
P83
P35
Volume
P75
P37
Striking Efficiency
P75
P16
Range Sniper
P79
P25
Kickboxing
P74
P34
Clinch Striking
P29
P37
Defensive Striking
P24
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P89
Wrestling
P23
P83
Pressure Wrestling
P56
P89
Top Control
P65
P33
Submission
P64
P69
Anti-Wrestling
P79
P74
Grappling Defense
P82
P80
Scrambler
P45
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P62
Power
P69
P34
Finisher
P59
P87
Damage Resistance
P73
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P86
Fast Starter
P56
P97
Pace
P61
P82
Late Fighter
P82
GLOBAL
P80
Versatility
P66
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TsarukyanHooker
3.79Landed / min5.03
1.84Absorbed / min4.72
49%Accuracy49%
54%Defense51%
0.32KD / 150.60
0.00KD abs / 150.13
Grappling / Wrestling
TsarukyanHooker
3.25TD / 150.73
8.77TD att / 152.14
37%TD accuracy34%
75%TD defense78%
6:06Control / 152:48
0.00Sub att / 150.33
Targets
TsarukyanHooker
Head65%|63%
Body23%|18%
Leg12%|20%
Position
TsarukyanHooker
Distance63%|84%
Clinch8%|9%
Ground29%|7%
Ranking evolution Tsarukyan Hooker
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Arman Tsarukyan
Arman Tsarukyan is built around a strong top game, controlling opponents once he gets them down, and his mat control has been trending upward lately. He can change levels to initiate those exchanges, manages range decently on the feet, and takes a shot well. He's riding a four-fight win streak, most recently over the No. 2-ranked opponent.
Dan Hooker
Dan Hooker brings the more active, pressuring striking game, working behind a slight volume advantage. At 8 cm of reach and 13 cm of height over Tsarukyan, he has the longer frame to fight from. His switch stance lets him vary looks, and he enters on a three-fight win streak that includes the No. 7-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Hooker owns the longer track record at range and the frame to fight behind his jab, but the sharper matchup-specific tools sit with Tsarukyan's grappling. The fight likely hinges on whether Hooker's length and output keep it standing, or whether Tsarukyan's level changes and top control drag it to the mat, where his ability to hold position becomes the deciding factor. Tsarukyan's range defense narrows Hooker's striking margin when they do exchange.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Hooker can use his reach and height to keep Tsarukyan at the end of his punches.
- Grappling: how often Tsarukyan changes levels and, once down, whether he can hold top position rather than getting scrambled.
- Late rounds: whether Tsarukyan's control time accumulates or Hooker's pressure keeps forcing the fight back up.
Key Uncertainty
Both men come in off extended layoffs, Tsarukyan out for over 19 months and Hooker for over 15, which clouds how sharp either will look in the early exchanges.