← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Asu Almabayev vs Alex Perez
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
65.2%
Model
64.2%
Market
1.50
Odds
+1.0
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
STRIKING
P11
Striking Initiative
P71
P3
Volume
P53
P29
Striking Efficiency
P38
P9
Range Sniper
P41
P33
Kickboxing
P36
P55
Clinch Striking
P72
P24
Defensive Striking
P71
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P96
Wrestling
P73
P97
Pressure Wrestling
P72
P99
Top Control
P85
P80
Submission
P68
P89
Anti-Wrestling
P36
P38
Grappling Defense
P62
P89
Scrambler
P25
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P21
Power
P56
P25
Finisher
P15
P56
Damage Resistance
P67
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P97
Fast Starter
P35
P77
Pace
P85
P8
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P60
Versatility
P81
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AlmabayevPerez
2.16Landed / min4.18
1.75Absorbed / min3.19
54%Accuracy47%
52%Defense59%
0.19KD / 150.70
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AlmabayevPerez
4.66TD / 152.11
10.81TD att / 154.57
43%TD accuracy46%
50%TD defense76%
7:39Control / 154:27
1.49Sub att / 150.70
Targets
AlmabayevPerez
Head51%|61%
Body25%|15%
Leg24%|25%
Position
AlmabayevPerez
Distance60%|70%
Clinch11%|14%
Ground29%|15%
Ranking evolution Almabayev Perez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Asu Almabayev
Almabayev's game runs through his grappling: he changes levels well, gets the fight to the mat, and controls from top once he's there, an area that's been trending up for him lately. He's 5-1 in the UFC with four wins in his last five, and his striking volume has been rising too.
Alex Perez
Perez brings the busier, more pressuring striking and holds a five-centimeter height advantage. His recent damage absorption has held up, and his last win came against the No. 11-ranked opponent, though he's gone 1/5 in his last five UFC appearances.
Matchup Read
Almabayev's push to get it down and pin from top meets Perez's edge on the feet, and that collision decides things. If Perez keeps distance and works his volume behind the height, he dictates the pace standing. Once Almabayev closes and drags it to the mat, his top control and rising ground game take over. Perez needs to stay upright to make his striking count; Almabayev also carries the slight finishing edge.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Perez can use his reach and pressure to keep the fight at range before level changes arrive.
- Grappling: how quickly Almabayev closes distance and whether his top control holds Perez down once it hits the mat.
- Get-ups: whether Perez can scramble back to his feet and reset the striking exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
Perez comes in off 17.2 months on the shelf, a stretch long enough that his current sharpness and timing are hard to gauge against Almabayev's activity.