← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Ian Machado Garry vs Belal Muhammad
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
55.8%
Model
66.0%
Market
1.46
Odds
-10.2
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 19 UFC fightsestablished · 19 fights
STRIKING
P95
Striking Initiative
P82
P91
Volume
P75
P96
Striking Efficiency
P54
P87
Range Sniper
P24
P98
Kickboxing
P55
P10
Clinch Striking
P6
P47
Defensive Striking
P56
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P35
Wrestling
P79
P42
Pressure Wrestling
P86
P28
Top Control
P83
P24
Submission
P25
P15
Anti-Wrestling
P51
P67
Grappling Defense
P88
P13
Scrambler
P9
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P71
Power
P6
P10
Finisher
P2
P82
Damage Resistance
P70
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P59
Fast Starter
P32
P62
Pace
P91
P98
Late Fighter
P59
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P94
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GarryMuhammad
4.77Landed / min4.51
2.77Absorbed / min3.78
54%Accuracy44%
52%Defense56%
0.41KD / 150.00
0.10KD abs / 150.30
Grappling / Wrestling
GarryMuhammad
1.02TD / 152.28
3.06TD att / 155.90
33%TD accuracy39%
74%TD defense90%
1:51Control / 153:34
0.41Sub att / 150.15
Targets
GarryMuhammad
Head57%|78%
Body20%|14%
Leg23%|8%
Position
GarryMuhammad
Distance91%|86%
Clinch5%|5%
Ground5%|9%
Ranking evolution Garry Muhammad
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ian Machado Garry
Ian Machado Garry brings real finishing ability, capable of ending fights before the judges get involved, and his defensive work has been trending upward recently. He owns a length advantage in this pairing, roughly 5 cm of reach, to help him work at range. His UFC ledger sits at 9-1, with 4 of his last 5 UFC wins.
Belal Muhammad
Belal Muhammad's most consistent strength is getting the fight to the mat, and he backs it up against the toughest names, with his last win coming over the No. 1-ranked opponent. His striking output has been climbing lately. He carries a deep 24-4 overall record and 15-4 in the UFC.
Matchup Read
Muhammad's push to drag this to the canvas meets Garry's length and finishing threat on the feet. If Garry keeps it standing and uses his reach to work behind jabs, his stopping power becomes the story. Muhammad's route runs through level changes and top time, though Garry's rising defensive work complicates that. Muhammad also owns the tested résumé against elite names, while Garry carries the sharper finishing danger.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Muhammad can complete entries and hold top position, or Garry defends and forces the fight back up.
- Early striking: whether Garry's reach lets him control range and land the harder shots at distance.
- Late rounds: whether Muhammad's rising volume stacks up as the fight wears on.