← UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker
Ismail Naurdiev vs Ryan Loder
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11-22
76.6%
Model
61.2%
Market
1.57
Odds
+15.4
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P77
Striking Initiative
P57
P66
Volume
P22
P87
Striking Efficiency
P40
P41
Range Sniper
P8
P86
Kickboxing
P1
P44
Clinch Striking
P68
P96
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P56
Wrestling
P53
P59
Pressure Wrestling
P98
P42
Top Control
P88
P40
Submission
P33
P20
Anti-Wrestling
P24
P51
Grappling Defense
P66
P80
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P17
Power
P25
P45
Finisher
P55
P74
Damage Resistance
P26
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P45
Fast Starter
P6
P62
Pace
P99
P2
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P42
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
NaurdievLoder
3.69Landed / min5.76
1.77Absorbed / min2.51
53%Accuracy71%
65%Defense50%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 153.14
Grappling / Wrestling
NaurdievLoder
1.50TD / 151.57
3.67TD att / 1510.99
41%TD accuracy14%
73%TD defense100%
2:55Control / 157:48
0.17Sub att / 151.57
Targets
NaurdievLoder
Head55%|85%
Body26%|15%
Leg19%|0%
Position
NaurdievLoder
Distance79%|13%
Clinch11%|13%
Ground10%|75%
Ranking evolution Naurdiev Loder
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ismail Naurdiev
Naurdiev's striking output has been climbing recently, and his recent durability holds up well. He hasn't been finished in his recent stretch and his form has stayed level rather than sliding. His UFC ledger sits at 3-3 (2 of his last 5), with a 24-8 mark across all promotions, most recently beating the No. 37-ranked opponent.
Ryan Loder
Loder's strength lies on the mat, where his top control is a real asset, backed by an ability to change levels and drag the fight down. He also carries a modest edge in striking volume and pressure, aided by 5 cm of reach and 10 cm of height. He's 1-1 in the UFC, 7-4 overall.
Matchup Read
Standing, Naurdiev's rising volume and recent durability let him trade with a taller, longer man in an orthodox-southpaw setup that opens the lead-hand and rear-side exchanges. The fight tilts if Loder closes distance and gets it down, where his top control becomes the central problem. Naurdiev's best route is keeping it upright and forcing Loder to strike at range rather than grind from top.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Loder can complete level changes and hold top position, or Naurdiev works back to his feet.
- Early striking: how Naurdiev handles the 5 cm reach gap and southpaw angles at range.
- Late rounds: whether Naurdiev's climbing output keeps pace as Loder pushes his pressure forward.
Key Uncertainty
Loder has only two UFC fights on record, so how his top game and pressure translate against this level of opposition remains hard to read with confidence.