AIAliev brings the more tested résumé and the edge against quality opposition, but Rock owns the sharper match…

73.7%

Model

73.0%

Market

1.32

Odds

+0.8

Edge (pp)

Nurullo Aliev

DEC

73.7%26.3%

Shem Rock

GRAPPLING CONTROLLER

Top Control · Wrestling

provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights

Style Matchup

No UFC data yet

UFC debut · style profile after first fight

STRIKING

P19

Striking Initiative

Volume

Striking Efficiency

Range Sniper

Kickboxing

P27

Clinch Striking

P43

Defensive Striking

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P68

Wrestling

P54

Pressure Wrestling

P98

Top Control

Submission

P72

Anti-Wrestling

P26

Grappling Defense

P88

Scrambler

DAMAGE / FINISHING

Power

Finisher

P45

Damage Resistance

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P90

Fast Starter

P78

Pace

P86

Late Fighter

GLOBAL

P14

Versatility

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

AlievRock

1.80Landed / min—

1.13Absorbed / min—

41%Accuracy—

60%Defense—

0.00KD / 15—

0.00KD abs / 15—

Grappling / Wrestling

AlievRock

2.50TD / 15—

3.00TD att / 15—

83%TD accuracy—

0%TD defense—

9:32Control / 15—

0.00Sub att / 15—

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Aliev Rock

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Nurullo Aliev

Nurullo Aliev is unbeaten at 10-0, riding a 10-fight win streak with a 2-0 UFC start. The stronger note in his favor is his level of performance against tougher competition, which sets him apart when the opposition steps up. Orthodox, coming off roughly 10 months out.

Shem Rock

Shem Rock arrives for his UFC debut at 12-1 with a six-fight win streak. His most meaningful weapons are his finishing ability, particularly the danger he brings on the ground, where he can end things before the scorecards come into play. Fights out of a southpaw stance.

Matchup Read

Aliev brings the more tested résumé and the edge against quality opposition, but Rock owns the sharper matchup-specific tools with his ground finishing and overall stoppage threat. That makes the grappling exchanges the central question: if Rock can drag the fight into scrambles and top positions, his submission threat looms large, and Aliev needs to keep exchanges clean and avoid getting drawn into that ground battle. The crossed stances shift the striking angles for both.

What to Watch

Grappling: whether Rock can turn scrambles into control and hunt submissions, or Aliev keeps it upright.
Finishing windows: watch if Rock threatens an early stoppage before the fight settles into a longer track.
Striking angles: how both handle the orthodox-southpaw lead-hand battle and open-side exchanges.

Key Uncertainty

Both men are hard to read at this level: Aliev has only two UFC fights on record, and Rock is making his UFC debut with no promotional history to draw on.

Nurullo Aliev vs Shem Rock