← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
55.3%
Model
46.1%
Market
2.09
Odds
+9.2
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P47
Striking Initiative
P96
P62
Volume
P98
P63
Striking Efficiency
P89
P60
Range Sniper
P84
P88
Kickboxing
P92
P40
Clinch Striking
P34
P39
Defensive Striking
P45
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P74
Wrestling
P8
P76
Pressure Wrestling
P14
P73
Top Control
P19
P30
Submission
P25
P95
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P91
Grappling Defense
P26
P58
Scrambler
P25
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P64
Power
P8
P62
Finisher
P7
P3
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P30
Fast Starter
P45
P75
Pace
P41
P56
Late Fighter
P64
GLOBAL
P84
Versatility
P21
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MullarkeyBedoya
4.39Landed / min7.29
4.53Absorbed / min6.38
47%Accuracy49%
54%Defense53%
0.29KD / 150.00
0.87KD abs / 150.67
Grappling / Wrestling
MullarkeyBedoya
2.31TD / 150.00
6.79TD att / 152.33
34%TD accuracy0%
79%TD defense33%
2:55Control / 150:37
0.14Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MullarkeyBedoya
Head50%|51%
Body22%|16%
Leg28%|33%
Position
MullarkeyBedoya
Distance85%|93%
Clinch9%|7%
Ground5%|0%
Ranking evolution Mullarkey Bedoya
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jamie Mullarkey
Jamie Mullarkey's game is anchored by strong takedown defense that keeps exchanges standing, and his striking output has been climbing recently. He carries some ability to change levels himself, sharp work managing range, and the pop to end fights early. His all-organizations mark sits at 17-8, though his UFC run reads 2 wins in his last 5.
Rolando Bedoya
Rolando Bedoya brings a 14-4 record across all organizations, with volume and forward pressure the most notable trait he offers standing. His UFC ledger stands at 0-3, all his damage done against modest regional opposition before reaching the promotion.
Matchup Read
Bedoya owns the tested regional resume, but Mullarkey holds the sharper matchup-specific tools. This one likely lives on the feet: Mullarkey's takedown defense keeps it there, and his rising output meets Bedoya's pressure and volume. Whoever controls distance dictates terms. Mullarkey also carries the finishing pop and can look to change levels himself, giving him a route to shift phases if the standing exchanges tighten up.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Bedoya's forward pressure crowds Mullarkey or Mullarkey keeps him at range and works his climbing volume.
- Grappling: if either man shoots, watch whether Mullarkey stuffs it and resets standing or turns the level change into top position.
- Late rounds: which output holds up if the fight goes long, with Mullarkey's finishing pop still in play.
Key Uncertainty
Both men come in off extended layoffs, Mullarkey out around 16.8 months and Bedoya around 13.8, which clouds how sharp either looks in the opening exchanges.