← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
76.7%
Model
64.8%
Market
1.49
Odds
+12.0
Edge (pp)
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P41
Striking Initiative
P95
P9
Volume
P85
P19
Striking Efficiency
P95
P5
Range Sniper
P95
P6
Kickboxing
P62
P52
Clinch Striking
P77
P4
Defensive Striking
P29
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P95
Wrestling
P69
P91
Pressure Wrestling
P33
P99
Top Control
P37
P92
Submission
P87
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P31
P41
Grappling Defense
P78
P34
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P22
Power
P96
P75
Finisher
P90
P66
Damage Resistance
P20
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P86
Fast Starter
P94
P97
Pace
P74
P83
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P36
Versatility
P85
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DawsonTorres
3.35Landed / min7.25
2.21Absorbed / min4.52
52%Accuracy60%
45%Defense49%
0.11KD / 153.51
0.11KD abs / 152.34
Grappling / Wrestling
DawsonTorres
4.03TD / 152.34
9.70TD att / 153.51
42%TD accuracy67%
60%TD defense88%
10:21Control / 151:44
1.09Sub att / 151.17
Targets
DawsonTorres
Head71%|67%
Body16%|27%
Leg13%|6%
Position
DawsonTorres
Distance50%|66%
Clinch10%|15%
Ground41%|19%
Ranking evolution Dawson Torres
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Grant Dawson
Grant Dawson leans on a heavy top game, controlling opponents on the mat once he gets there and staying hard to hold down himself, scrambling back to his feet when put on his back. He's shown durability recently, brings the sharper resume against ranked opposition, and carries a slight edge managing distance defensively on the feet. Riding a three-fight win streak.
Manuel Torres
Manuel Torres brings the higher-output striking, pressing forward with volume, and owns a slight edge in closing fights before the judges. He arrives 4-1 in the UFC and 16-3 overall, though his recent wins have come against lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Torres's forward pressure and volume meet Dawson's grappling and top control head-on. The striking phase favors Torres's output, but Dawson's distance management and recent chin give him a way to weather exchanges long enough to change levels. Once it hits the mat, Dawson's control and Torres's need to scramble define the fight. If Torres keeps it upright and stacks volume, his finishing threat grows; if Dawson lands takedowns, his top game takes over.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Torres can keep Dawson at range and pile up volume before level changes arrive.
- Grappling: how quickly Dawson closes distance and secures top position once exchanges start.
- Late rounds: whether Torres's finishing pressure holds up or Dawson grinds control time as the fight wears on.