← UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12-06
63.4%
Model
76.5%
Market
1.26
Odds
-13.1
Edge (pp)
established · 16 UFC fightsestablished · 16 fights
Style Matchup
established · 15 UFC fightsestablished · 15 fights
STRIKING
P82
Striking Initiative
P83
P57
Volume
P67
P18
Striking Efficiency
P94
P9
Range Sniper
P78
P16
Kickboxing
P80
P75
Clinch Striking
P74
P48
Defensive Striking
P73
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P98
Wrestling
P63
P99
Pressure Wrestling
P53
P96
Top Control
P54
P31
Submission
P16
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P87
P82
Grappling Defense
P97
P25
Scrambler
P55
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P11
Power
P65
P2
Finisher
P4
P97
Damage Resistance
P99
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P80
Fast Starter
P77
P99
Pace
P55
P28
Late Fighter
P88
GLOBAL
P82
Versatility
P99
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DvalishviliYan
4.33Landed / min5.12
2.55Absorbed / min4.14
42%Accuracy54%
56%Defense59%
0.05KD / 150.58
0.05KD abs / 150.06
Grappling / Wrestling
DvalishviliYan
6.40TD / 151.58
16.91TD att / 153.27
38%TD accuracy48%
83%TD defense85%
5:36Control / 152:18
0.27Sub att / 150.12
Targets
DvalishviliYan
Head65%|68%
Body17%|20%
Leg17%|12%
Position
DvalishviliYan
Distance61%|73%
Clinch15%|12%
Ground24%|15%
Ranking evolution Dvalishvili Yan
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Merab Dvalishvili
Dvalishvili's game runs through his wrestling: he changes levels well, gets the fight down, and grinds from top position once he's there. Recent submission threat rounds out that top game. He rides a 14-fight win streak, most recently beating the No. 5-ranked opponent, with slight edges in distance work and durability.
Petr Yan
Yan switches stances and has been tightening his defense of late. He's on a three-fight run, his last win over the No. 17-ranked opponent, and his most recent loss came against the No. 3-ranked opponent, meaning he's been in with top-tier competition.
Matchup Read
Yan brings the sharper recent exposure to elite opposition, but the matchup-specific tools favor Dvalishvili's route to the mat. His level changes and top control are the central thread: if he plants Yan on his back, his recent submission threat becomes live. Yan's tightening defense and stance switching matter most standing, where Dvalishvili holds only slight edges in range work and durability, so keeping it upright is Yan's clearest terrain.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Yan can stay off his back or gets pinned under Dvalishvili's top control for extended stretches.
- Early striking: how Yan's stance switching handles Dvalishvili's level-change entries before they close distance.
- Late rounds: whether Dvalishvili's forward pace keeps forcing scrambles as the fight wears on.