← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
57.9%
Model
63.9%
Market
1.51
Odds
-6.0
Edge (pp)
established · 31 UFC fightsestablished · 31 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P26
P99
Volume
P17
P92
Striking Efficiency
P62
P85
Range Sniper
P49
P88
Kickboxing
P41
P20
Clinch Striking
P86
P82
Defensive Striking
P12
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P19
Wrestling
P77
P18
Pressure Wrestling
P68
P26
Top Control
P61
P36
Submission
P99
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P33
P83
Grappling Defense
P16
P0
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P54
Power
P46
P19
Finisher
P97
P100
Damage Resistance
P32
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P49
Fast Starter
P75
P41
Pace
P58
P91
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P80
Versatility
P65
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
HollowayOliveira
7.20Landed / min3.32
4.74Absorbed / min3.27
48%Accuracy55%
59%Defense49%
0.35KD / 150.40
0.06KD abs / 150.34
Grappling / Wrestling
HollowayOliveira
0.24TD / 152.22
0.44TD att / 155.58
53%TD accuracy40%
83%TD defense52%
0:49Control / 154:30
0.30Sub att / 152.51
Targets
HollowayOliveira
Head65%|58%
Body24%|27%
Leg11%|15%
Position
HollowayOliveira
Distance88%|60%
Clinch7%|18%
Ground5%|22%
Ranking evolution Holloway Oliveira
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Max Holloway
Max Holloway drives a high-volume, pressure-heavy striking attack and defends the takedown well to keep exchanges standing. His output has been trending upward, and he's coming off a win over the No. 7-ranked opponent, with his only recent setback against the No. 1.
Charles Oliveira
Charles Oliveira brings heavy control once the fight hits the mat and a strong knack for closing before the scorecards, with finishing momentum across his recent fights. He carries a 13 cm reach advantage and a deep 36-11 record, his lone recent loss to the No. 1-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Holloway carries the early pace with volume and pressure, while Oliveira's finishing and top control grow more dangerous the longer he can hang around. The central question is the mat: Holloway's takedown defense meets Oliveira's push to drag it down, where his control and submission threat live. If Holloway keeps it standing, his output dictates terms. Oliveira's reach gives him something to work with at range before any ground phase opens.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Oliveira can complete entries and hold Holloway down, or gets stuffed and reset to the feet.
- Early striking: Holloway's volume against Oliveira using the 13 cm reach to fight at distance.
- Late rounds: whether Oliveira finds a finishing sequence as exchanges pile up.