← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Michael Johnson vs Drew Dober
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
51.2%
Model
57.1%
Market
1.68
Odds
-5.9
Edge (pp)
established · 31 UFC fightsestablished · 31 fights
Style Matchup
established · 25 UFC fightsestablished · 25 fights
STRIKING
P62
Striking Initiative
P71
P90
Volume
P82
P26
Striking Efficiency
P38
P69
Range Sniper
P70
P53
Kickboxing
P56
P12
Clinch Striking
P41
P86
Defensive Striking
P39
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P20
Wrestling
P17
P26
Pressure Wrestling
P67
P17
Top Control
P34
P17
Submission
P63
P74
Anti-Wrestling
P29
P85
Grappling Defense
P23
P40
Scrambler
P46
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P50
Power
P67
P11
Finisher
P66
P82
Damage Resistance
P78
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P43
Fast Starter
P36
P36
Pace
P64
P8
Late Fighter
P59
GLOBAL
P19
Versatility
P17
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
JohnsonDober
4.28Landed / min4.58
3.79Absorbed / min4.38
40%Accuracy41%
59%Defense53%
0.54KD / 150.65
0.13KD abs / 150.22
Grappling / Wrestling
JohnsonDober
0.58TD / 150.65
1.50TD att / 153.84
39%TD accuracy17%
81%TD defense59%
1:12Control / 152:02
0.04Sub att / 150.07
Targets
JohnsonDober
Head53%|64%
Body32%|23%
Leg15%|14%
Position
JohnsonDober
Distance89%|79%
Clinch7%|11%
Ground4%|10%
Ranking evolution Johnson Dober
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michael Johnson
Michael Johnson rides a three-fight win streak and carries an 8 cm reach edge he can put to use behind sharp distance management and stand-up defense. His chin has held up recently, and his work from top position has been trending upward, adding a grappling dimension to his rangy striking.
Drew Dober
Drew Dober brings the more dangerous recent finishing form, with knockout power that has closed fights out lately. He also owns a slight edge in changing levels and getting the fight to the mat, giving him a path away from range exchanges.
Matchup Read
Dober carries the finishing threat and knockout pop, but Johnson owns the sharper matchup-specific tools at range, using his reach and stand-up defense to keep Dober at the end of his strikes. The pivotal exchange is grappling: Dober's push to get the fight down meets Johnson's takedown defense. If Johnson stuffs the entries and stays long, the fight lives in his wheelhouse; if Dober lands clean or drags it to the mat, his power and top pressure take over.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Johnson can keep Dober pinned to the end of his range or Dober closes the gap to load up power shots.
- Grappling: how often Dober changes levels, and whether Johnson's takedown defense keeps the fight standing.
- Damage exchanges: whether Johnson's recent durability holds up against Dober's finishing power in close-range trades.