← UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen
Drew Dober vs Kyle Prepolec
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10-18
63.7%
Model
78.9%
Market
1.22
Odds
-15.2
Edge (pp)
established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
STRIKING
P66
Striking Initiative
P3
P79
Volume
P46
P32
Striking Efficiency
P7
P68
Range Sniper
P32
P47
Kickboxing
P32
P40
Clinch Striking
P35
P30
Defensive Striking
P28
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P19
Wrestling
P9
P69
Pressure Wrestling
P4
P36
Top Control
P1
P64
Submission
P27
P23
Anti-Wrestling
P4
P17
Grappling Defense
P3
P49
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P67
Power
P20
P55
Finisher
P53
P76
Damage Resistance
P69
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P32
Fast Starter
P1
P67
Pace
P2
P59
Late Fighter
P5
GLOBAL
P11
Versatility
P1
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DoberPrepolec
4.42Landed / min2.87
4.37Absorbed / min5.19
41%Accuracy36%
51%Defense49%
0.69KD / 150.00
0.23KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
DoberPrepolec
0.69TD / 150.00
3.98TD att / 151.60
17%TD accuracy0%
57%TD defense40%
2:09Control / 150:22
0.08Sub att / 150.00
Targets
DoberPrepolec
Head64%|56%
Body23%|30%
Leg13%|14%
Position
DoberPrepolec
Distance78%|95%
Clinch11%|5%
Ground11%|0%
Ranking evolution Dober Prepolec
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Drew Dober
Drew Dober brings the more tested résumé, with his defensive posture and stand-up defense both trending up recently. He carries a slight edge in striking volume and pressure, and his distance management is sharper here. He's also avoided any recent stoppage loss.
Kyle Prepolec
Kyle Prepolec stands 5 cm taller and has shown durability in recent outings, absorbing damage well. His ground control has been trending upward, giving him a route to grind from top position, though his UFC ledger sits at 0-3.
Matchup Read
Dober's improved stand-up defense and pressure meet Prepolec's push to control from top. If Dober keeps this at range, his volume and cleaner distance management steer the striking exchanges. Prepolec's height offers reach in those trades, but his clearer path runs through changing levels and imposing the ground control that's been trending up. Prepolec's recent damage absorption matters against a pressure opponent who has kept his own recent bouts off the finish list.
What to Watch
- Striking phase: watch whether Dober controls range and out-lands, or Prepolec closes distance using his height.
- Grappling: whether Prepolec can secure top position and hold it, or Dober's defense keeps the fight standing.
- Damage: whether Prepolec's recent durability holds up under sustained pressure and volume.