← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel vs Cody Durden
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
76.1%
Model
60.0%
Market
1.61
Odds
+16.1
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
established · 13 UFC fightsestablished · 13 fights
STRIKING
P4
Striking Initiative
P33
P26
Volume
P38
P3
Striking Efficiency
P46
P38
Range Sniper
P39
P25
Kickboxing
P47
P41
Clinch Striking
P9
P73
Defensive Striking
P20
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P54
Wrestling
P98
P15
Pressure Wrestling
P89
P3
Top Control
P92
P91
Submission
P60
P47
Anti-Wrestling
P37
P40
Grappling Defense
P69
P58
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P73
Power
P29
P79
Finisher
P53
P47
Damage Resistance
P29
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P45
Fast Starter
P88
P9
Pace
P86
P48
Late Fighter
P47
GLOBAL
P24
Versatility
P83
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TumendemberelDurden
2.07Landed / min3.82
3.08Absorbed / min4.48
32%Accuracy45%
58%Defense52%
0.84KD / 150.13
0.00KD abs / 150.51
Grappling / Wrestling
TumendemberelDurden
1.68TD / 154.24
4.19TD att / 157.84
40%TD accuracy54%
73%TD defense80%
0:48Control / 155:49
1.68Sub att / 150.64
Targets
TumendemberelDurden
Head62%|76%
Body27%|13%
Leg11%|11%
Position
TumendemberelDurden
Distance84%|85%
Clinch8%|4%
Ground8%|11%
Ranking evolution Tumendemberel Durden
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Nyamjargal Tumendemberel brings real finishing threat, dangerous off submissions on the mat and capable of ending fights before the scorecards. He owns a 10cm reach advantage to work behind, his damage absorption has held up recently, and his cardio holds over the distance. His defense has also been trending upward. He sits 9-1 overall, 1-1 in the UFC.
Cody Durden
Cody Durden's strength is his top game, controlling opponents once he puts them on the mat and grinding from position. He's the more experienced hand at 17-9 overall across a long career, though he's won just one of his last five UFC outings. His last loss came against the No. 31-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Durden's push to get the fight down and control from top meets Tumendemberel's submission threat off his back, which is the central tension here. Grounding this fighter carries risk if Durden can't stay clean in scrambles. Standing, Tumendemberel's reach and southpaw-orthodox angles shape the range, and his finishing power plus steadier gas tank matter more the longer this goes. Durden's route runs through control time; Tumendemberel's runs through a stoppage.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Durden's control holds or Tumendemberel threatens submissions from bottom in scrambles.
- Early striking: how Tumendemberel uses the 10cm reach and stance mismatch to keep range and land power.
- Late rounds: whether the pace tells, with Tumendemberel's cardio edge growing as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Tumendemberel's record, how his tools translate against this level of top-control pressure over a full fight is hard to read with confidence.