← UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Reinier de Ridder vs Caio Borralho
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03-07
56.0%
Model
30.2%
Market
3.19
Odds
+25.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
STRIKING
P50
Striking Initiative
P34
P14
Volume
P22
P56
Striking Efficiency
P68
P28
Range Sniper
P51
P45
Kickboxing
P57
P88
Clinch Striking
P19
P29
Defensive Striking
P74
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P77
Wrestling
P46
P79
Pressure Wrestling
P37
P73
Top Control
P84
P92
Submission
P53
P6
Anti-Wrestling
P99
P7
Grappling Defense
P79
P34
Scrambler
P86
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P49
Power
P46
P90
Finisher
P14
P34
Damage Resistance
P85
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P68
Fast Starter
P26
P74
Pace
P40
P1
Late Fighter
P25
GLOBAL
P46
Versatility
P87
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RidderBorralho
2.20Landed / min3.24
2.04Absorbed / min2.51
53%Accuracy55%
49%Defense60%
0.45KD / 150.36
0.22KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
RidderBorralho
2.68TD / 151.09
8.94TD att / 152.54
30%TD accuracy43%
50%TD defense73%
5:38Control / 154:10
0.67Sub att / 150.48
Targets
RidderBorralho
Head57%|66%
Body37%|19%
Leg6%|15%
Position
RidderBorralho
Distance68%|80%
Clinch20%|4%
Ground12%|15%
Ranking evolution Ridder Borralho
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Reinier de Ridder
Reinier de Ridder brings the more dangerous grappling, with a genuine finishing threat once the fight hits the mat and a track record of closing out fights before the scorecards. He carries a reach and frame advantage of 8 cm, and his last win came against the No. 7-ranked opponent.
Caio Borralho
Caio Borralho leans on durability, having taken damage recently without folding, and edges the striking exchanges with slightly higher volume and pressure. His takedown defense gives him a route to keep things standing, and he has not been finished recently. His last win came over the No. 8-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
The floor decides plenty here: de Ridder's submission threat and finishing ability turn any prolonged ground exchange into real danger, while Borralho's edge in takedown defense is the counter that could keep the fight in open space. Standing, Borralho's volume and pressure meet de Ridder's length. If Borralho stuffs entries and stays upright, his durability lets him bank striking minutes rather than surviving on his back.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether de Ridder can convert entries into top control and submission attempts, or Borralho's takedown defense keeps him standing.
- Early striking: whether Borralho's volume can work behind de Ridder's 8 cm reach advantage.
- Late rounds: whether Borralho's recent durability holds up if the fight drags into deep water on the mat.