← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
72.7%
Model
88.3%
Market
1.09
Odds
-15.6
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P88
Striking Initiative
P93
P90
Volume
P95
P61
Striking Efficiency
P100
P86
Range Sniper
P97
P71
Kickboxing
P97
P60
Clinch Striking
P23
P44
Defensive Striking
P82
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P44
Wrestling
P21
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P10
Top Control
P0
P2
Submission
P15
P60
Anti-Wrestling
P48
P82
Grappling Defense
P50
P27
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P33
P75
Finisher
P68
P59
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P64
Fast Starter
P4
P20
Pace
P4
P35
Late Fighter
P56
GLOBAL
P29
Versatility
P47
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GautierDiaz
4.07Landed / min8.27
3.65Absorbed / min8.50
41%Accuracy53%
52%Defense61%
3.51KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.86
Grappling / Wrestling
GautierDiaz
0.70TD / 150.00
0.70TD att / 150.00
100%TD accuracy—
100%TD defense67%
0:04Control / 150:00
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
GautierDiaz
Head78%|85%
Body20%|10%
Leg2%|5%
Position
GautierDiaz
Distance84%|97%
Clinch13%|3%
Ground3%|0%
Ranking evolution Gautier Diaz
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Ateba Gautier
Gautier arrives on a 9-fight run across all organizations and a perfect 4-0 in the UFC. He manages range well and holds up under fire, with a sturdy chin recently intact. On the mat he can impose level changes and also keep things upright when he chooses, and his finishing has carried through this stretch.
Ozzy Diaz
Diaz brings the higher output and forward pressure in the stand-up, leaning on volume to build momentum. He sits at 1-1 in the UFC and 10-3 overall, with his most recent win over modest regional opposition after a 14-month layoff.
Matchup Read
Standing, Diaz's volume and pressure meet Gautier's range control and defensive stand-up, so the striking hinges on whether Diaz can close distance past the reach without eating counters. If Gautier chooses the grappling, his ability to change levels and dictate where the fight happens becomes the swing factor, since he can both take Diaz down and refuse the exchange when it suits him. Gautier's durability lets him weather early pressure.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Diaz can breach the 5 cm reach gap and land in volume, or gets met on the counter.
- Grappling: who dictates where the fight takes place, with Gautier able to both initiate takedowns and keep it standing.
- Late rounds: whether Diaz's forward pressure holds its pace into the third after 14 months out.
Key Uncertainty
Diaz has only two UFC fights to judge and comes off a 14-month layoff, which leaves his current form and readiness harder to read against a more active opponent.