← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Jose Ochoa vs Clayton Carpenter
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
69.1%
Model
61.9%
Market
1.56
Odds
+7.2
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
STRIKING
P90
Striking Initiative
P16
P85
Volume
P12
P5
Striking Efficiency
P49
P21
Range Sniper
P26
P21
Kickboxing
P36
P62
Clinch Striking
P57
P89
Defensive Striking
P38
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P32
Wrestling
P54
P5
Pressure Wrestling
P70
P3
Top Control
P61
P37
Submission
P85
P4
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P12
Grappling Defense
P12
P28
Scrambler
P97
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P89
Power
P7
P92
Finisher
P60
P55
Damage Resistance
P56
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P18
Fast Starter
P7
P26
Pace
P43
P12
Late Fighter
P30
GLOBAL
P10
Versatility
P35
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OchoaCarpenter
3.01Landed / min2.86
2.33Absorbed / min2.16
38%Accuracy55%
61%Defense52%
0.43KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
OchoaCarpenter
0.43TD / 151.49
0.85TD att / 153.49
50%TD accuracy43%
59%TD defense38%
0:45Control / 155:00
1.28Sub att / 151.99
Targets
OchoaCarpenter
Head37%|53%
Body31%|23%
Leg32%|23%
Position
OchoaCarpenter
Distance85%|62%
Clinch12%|9%
Ground3%|29%
Ranking evolution Ochoa Carpenter
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jose Ochoa
Jose Ochoa manages range well and defends sharply on the feet, carrying recent knockout power that makes his stand-up exchanges dangerous. His chin has held up to damage, and he hasn't been stopped in his recent run. He owns a slightly better track record against tougher opposition, with an 8-2 overall mark.
Clayton Carpenter
Clayton Carpenter's strengths live on the mat, where his top control and finishing threat once the fight hits the ground both stand out. He sits at 2-2 in the UFC and 8-2 across all organizations, with recent wins coming against lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Carpenter's push to get this to the floor meets Ochoa's defensive striking and durability. If Carpenter lands takedowns, his top control and submission threat are the central danger, and Ochoa needs to deny entries to keep it standing, where his range management and knockout power carry weight. The orthodox-southpaw matchup reshapes the lead-hand exchanges. Three rounds limits how long either can grind out his preferred phase.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Carpenter can close distance and finish takedowns, or Ochoa stuffs the entries and resets at range.
- Early striking: how the southpaw-orthodox angles affect lead-hand exchanges and whether Ochoa's power lands clean.
- Ground time: if the fight hits the mat, whether Ochoa scrambles up quickly or Carpenter settles into control and hunts a finish.