← UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05-09
73.4%
Model
81.1%
Market
1.19
Odds
-7.7
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P62
Striking Initiative
P96
P15
Volume
P97
P39
Striking Efficiency
P66
P14
Range Sniper
P73
P4
Kickboxing
P61
P16
Clinch Striking
P2
P6
Defensive Striking
P88
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P100
Wrestling
P41
P84
Pressure Wrestling
P11
P99
Top Control
P41
P83
Submission
P39
P55
Anti-Wrestling
P55
P77
Grappling Defense
P96
P32
Scrambler
P0
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P69
Power
P43
P74
Finisher
P25
P79
Damage Resistance
P87
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P99
Fast Starter
P20
P98
Pace
P50
P62
Late Fighter
P42
GLOBAL
P75
Versatility
P84
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ChimaevStrickland
4.04Landed / min6.04
2.32Absorbed / min4.57
61%Accuracy43%
43%Defense61%
0.41KD / 150.28
0.00KD abs / 150.12
Grappling / Wrestling
ChimaevStrickland
5.29TD / 150.71
9.57TD att / 151.10
55%TD accuracy64%
86%TD defense77%
9:53Control / 151:13
1.83Sub att / 150.16
Targets
ChimaevStrickland
Head84%|80%
Body8%|15%
Leg9%|5%
Position
ChimaevStrickland
Distance42%|92%
Clinch4%|3%
Ground54%|5%
Ranking evolution Chimaev Strickland
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Khamzat Chimaev
Chimaev brings a flawless 15-0 record across all organizations and a 9-0 UFC run, with his most recent win coming over the No. 1-ranked opponent. His control once the fight hits the mat and his ground finishing are central weapons, backed by a gas tank that holds up deep into fights and striking defense that's been tightening recently.
Sean Strickland
Strickland owns a deep 30-7 all-organizations résumé and a 17-7 UFC ledger, with a recent win over the No. 7-ranked opponent after dropping his last loss to the No. 1. His striking output has been climbing of late, giving him volume to lean on at distance.
Matchup Read
Early, Strickland's rising volume at range is his avenue to bank rounds before Chimaev closes the gap. Once it hits the floor, though, Chimaev's control and ground finishing become the decisive threat, and with the edge in holding pace across five rounds, his danger doesn't fade. Strickland needs to defend entries and keep this upright; the longer it stays standing, the more his output matters.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Strickland can keep Chimaev at the end of his punches and win the range exchanges before a level change.
- Grappling: how quickly Chimaev closes distance and secures top position, and whether Strickland can get back to his feet.
- Late rounds: whether Chimaev's pace holds through the championship rounds or the fight stays standing long enough to favor Strickland's volume.