← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
Damian PinasLow Data
75.4%
Model
64.9%
Market
1.48
Odds
+10.5
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P89
Striking Initiative
P72
P58
Volume
P60
P83
Striking Efficiency
P93
P66
Range Sniper
P81
P53
Kickboxing
P88
P56
Clinch Striking
P87
P54
Defensive Striking
P35
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P29
Wrestling
P5
P17
Pressure Wrestling
P10
P79
Top Control
P5
P11
Submission
P7
P25
Anti-Wrestling
P10
P62
Grappling Defense
P0
P35
Scrambler
P58
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P76
P69
Finisher
P59
P39
Damage Resistance
P33
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
—
Fast Starter
P23
P78
Pace
P5
—
Late Fighter
P16
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P3
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PinasAlmeida
6.00Landed / min3.12
1.20Absorbed / min2.07
65%Accuracy58%
77%Defense46%
12.00KD / 150.27
0.00KD abs / 150.53
Grappling / Wrestling
PinasAlmeida
0.00TD / 150.00
0.00TD att / 150.53
—TD accuracy0%
100%TD defense47%
4:54Control / 150:48
0.00Sub att / 150.27
Targets
PinasAlmeida
Head60%|43%
Body13%|35%
Leg27%|22%
Position
PinasAlmeida
Distance53%|72%
Clinch7%|17%
Ground40%|11%
Ranking evolution Pinas Almeida
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Damian Pinas
Damian Pinas arrives on a five-fight win streak with a 9-1 overall mark after taking his UFC debut. The through-line is finishing: he ends fights early and carries that momentum, backed by a sturdy chin and the reach to work from the outside. His takedown defense keeps exchanges where he wants them, and he edges the volume and distance work on the feet.
Cesar Almeida
Cesar Almeida sits at 3-2 in the UFC and 7-2 across all organizations, with three wins in his last five octagon appearances. At 14 years the older man here, he comes in off nearly 7 months out, his recent results against lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
Almeida brings the deeper octagon résumé, but the matchup-specific tools lean toward Pinas. With a 13 cm reach advantage and the ability to keep this standing, Pinas can dictate range and force exchanges on the feet, where his volume and finishing threat become live. If Almeida wants a different fight, he has to close that distance and take Pinas down, which runs straight into solid takedown defense. Over three rounds, Pinas's durability also lets him trade without much fear.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Almeida can get inside the reach or ends up eating jabs and volume at the end of Pinas's range.
- Grappling: how often Almeida changes levels, and whether Pinas's sprawl keeps the fight vertical.
- Finishing window: whether Pinas's pressure forces a stoppage or Almeida drags it toward the cards.
Key Uncertainty
With just one UFC fight on Pinas's record, how his tools hold up against this level of competition over a full three rounds remains the main open question in reading the matchup.