← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
68.8%
Model
68.4%
Market
1.41
Odds
+0.4
Edge (pp)
established · 32 UFC fightsestablished · 32 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P91
P100
Volume
P85
P91
Striking Efficiency
P85
P86
Range Sniper
P95
P89
Kickboxing
P64
P20
Clinch Striking
P64
P83
Defensive Striking
P47
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P19
Wrestling
P37
P17
Pressure Wrestling
P39
P17
Top Control
P25
P36
Submission
P16
P34
Anti-Wrestling
P23
P78
Grappling Defense
P35
P0
Scrambler
P49
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P49
Power
P100
P15
Finisher
P92
P100
Damage Resistance
P79
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P47
Fast Starter
P98
P41
Pace
P41
P90
Late Fighter
P40
GLOBAL
P79
Versatility
P43
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
HollowayMcGregor
6.91Landed / min5.32
4.61Absorbed / min4.66
48%Accuracy50%
59%Defense54%
0.34KD / 151.73
0.06KD abs / 150.13
Grappling / Wrestling
HollowayMcGregor
0.23TD / 150.67
0.42TD att / 151.20
53%TD accuracy56%
81%TD defense67%
0:49Control / 151:51
0.28Sub att / 150.13
Targets
HollowayMcGregor
Head65%|70%
Body24%|17%
Leg11%|13%
Position
HollowayMcGregor
Distance88%|77%
Clinch7%|10%
Ground5%|13%
Ranking evolution Holloway McGregor
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Max Holloway
Holloway brings high striking volume and forward pressure, with sharp distance management and a tight stand-up defense that has been tightening further of late. His recent work includes a win over the No. 7-ranked opponent, with his only recent loss coming against top-three competition, and a quick 4.1-month turnaround.
Conor McGregor
McGregor carries real fight-ending power and a frame advantage, with a 13 cm reach edge and southpaw stance. His striking output has been climbing, and his form has held steady rather than slipping. He beat the No. 6-ranked opponent before dropping to the No. 1-ranked fighter.
Matchup Read
The collision is Holloway's volume and pressure against McGregor's one-shot finishing threat behind a longer reach. If Holloway can close the 13 cm gap and work inside, his output and defensive sharpness favor a cumulative, points-building fight across five rounds. The danger for him is eating a clean counter while pressing forward. Over championship rounds, Holloway's pace grows in value, but any exchange keeps McGregor's finishing power live.
What to Watch
- Distance: whether Holloway consistently closes past McGregor's reach to start his combinations inside.
- Early striking: how McGregor's power counters land as Holloway walks him down in the opening rounds.
- Late rounds: whether Holloway's volume compounds across rounds four and five in a five-rounder.
Key Uncertainty
McGregor has been out of competition for roughly 60 months, a layoff long enough to cloud how his timing, output, and finishing hold up against sustained pressure over five rounds.