← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07-11
54.4%
Model
64.3%
Market
1.50
Odds
-9.9
Edge (pp)
established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights
Style Matchup
established · 21 UFC fightsestablished · 21 fights
STRIKING
P74
Striking Initiative
P80
P87
Volume
P50
P56
Striking Efficiency
P66
P74
Range Sniper
P47
P69
Kickboxing
P39
P12
Clinch Striking
P88
P91
Defensive Striking
P14
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P25
Wrestling
P71
P19
Pressure Wrestling
P82
P27
Top Control
P76
P28
Submission
P95
P36
Anti-Wrestling
P61
P78
Grappling Defense
P23
P1
Scrambler
P96
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P51
Power
P62
P14
Finisher
P99
P31
Damage Resistance
P29
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P65
Fast Starter
P87
P41
Pace
P93
P57
Late Fighter
P35
GLOBAL
P55
Versatility
P66
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
WhittakerKrylov
4.39Landed / min4.36
3.36Absorbed / min2.59
43%Accuracy54%
60%Defense48%
0.55KD / 150.62
0.37KD abs / 150.31
Grappling / Wrestling
WhittakerKrylov
0.73TD / 152.05
1.93TD att / 155.54
38%TD accuracy37%
82%TD defense53%
1:13Control / 155:29
0.00Sub att / 151.23
Targets
WhittakerKrylov
Head71%|60%
Body11%|24%
Leg19%|16%
Position
WhittakerKrylov
Distance86%|57%
Clinch7%|24%
Ground7%|20%
Ranking evolution Whittaker Krylov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Robert Whittaker
Robert Whittaker's standout credential here is the quality of opposition he's handled, having competed and won against elite-level names. He last beat the No. 46-ranked opponent, with his last loss coming to the No. 17-ranked fighter. He's been out for 11.5 months heading into this one.
Nikita Krylov
Nikita Krylov brings the heavier grappling toolkit: strong top control once he puts the fight on the mat, a real finishing threat from there, and the frame to apply it, standing 8 cm taller with a 10 cm reach advantage. His ground control has been trending upward lately, and he carries genuine finishing ability before the scorecards. He last beat the No. 20-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Whittaker owns the tested résumé against top competition, but the matchup-specific tools favor Krylov on the mat. The decisive question is where this fight lives: if Krylov closes distance and lands his takedowns, his top pressure and ground finishing become the central danger. Whittaker's clearest path is to keep it standing and work in open space, denying Krylov the control positions where his threat compounds across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Krylov can plant Whittaker on the mat and hold top position, or gets shrugged off in scrambles.
- Early striking: how Whittaker handles the 10 cm reach gap at range and whether he can keep the fight in open space.
- Finishing windows: whether Krylov can turn any control sequence into a stoppage threat before the scorecards.