← UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry
Esteban Ribovics vs Edson Barboza
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08-15
73.3%
Model
76.4%
Market
1.26
Odds
-3.2
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 32 UFC fightsestablished · 32 fights
STRIKING
P99
Striking Initiative
P41
P100
Volume
P69
P83
Striking Efficiency
P58
P89
Range Sniper
P91
P85
Kickboxing
P88
P3
Clinch Striking
P34
P55
Defensive Striking
P66
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P31
Wrestling
P22
P7
Pressure Wrestling
P24
P4
Top Control
P12
P45
Submission
P20
P37
Anti-Wrestling
P51
P40
Grappling Defense
P64
P38
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P62
Power
P77
P64
Finisher
P33
P84
Damage Resistance
P52
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P17
Fast Starter
P35
P35
Pace
P9
P99
Late Fighter
P7
GLOBAL
P54
Versatility
P23
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RibovicsBarboza
7.24Landed / min4.14
5.80Absorbed / min4.68
43%Accuracy45%
54%Defense56%
0.35KD / 150.63
0.18KD abs / 150.35
Grappling / Wrestling
RibovicsBarboza
0.35TD / 150.43
0.53TD att / 150.86
67%TD accuracy50%
66%TD defense73%
0:30Control / 150:58
0.18Sub att / 150.08
Targets
RibovicsBarboza
Head75%|44%
Body16%|32%
Leg9%|25%
Position
RibovicsBarboza
Distance94%|91%
Clinch2%|5%
Ground4%|4%
Ranking evolution Ribovics Barboza
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Esteban Ribovics
Ribovics brings heavy output and forward pressure on the feet, backed by real finishing ability to close a fight before the judges. His defense has been sharpening lately, his recent chin has held up under fire, and he carries pace well into the later going. At 15-3 overall and 3 of his last 5 in the UFC, he's won against lower-ranked opposition, with his only recent loss coming to the No. 8-ranked opponent.
Edson Barboza
Barboza owns a sizable physical advantage here, roughly 15 cm of reach to work behind, and his striking volume has been trending upward recently. A deeply experienced lightweight at 24-14 across all organizations, his last win came over the No. 25-ranked opponent. He's 10 years older than Ribovics and comes in off 8.3 months out.
Matchup Read
Ribovics' pressure and volume meet Barboza's reach, and that's the central exchange: whether the younger man can walk through the longer frame to close distance and force the pocket work he wants. If he does, his finishing threat, durability and late-fight pace all become relevant over three rounds. If Barboza keeps him at the end of his range and pours on his rising volume from distance, the fight shifts to his terms.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Ribovics can cut the cage and get inside the longer reach, or eats counters walking in
- Distance: how often Barboza resets to the outside and keeps the exchanges at his range
- Late rounds: whether Ribovics' pace and pressure compound as the fight wears into the third