← UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03-28
Chase HooperLow Data
54.6%
Model
67.9%
Market
1.42
Odds
-13.3
Edge (pp)
established · 12 UFC fightsestablished · 12 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P79
Striking Initiative
P0
P60
Volume
P4
P52
Striking Efficiency
P9
P22
Range Sniper
P18
P27
Kickboxing
P49
P41
Clinch Striking
P51
P2
Defensive Striking
P47
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P83
Wrestling
P55
P87
Pressure Wrestling
P22
P77
Top Control
P42
P90
Submission
P29
P85
Anti-Wrestling
P36
P30
Grappling Defense
P34
P99
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P22
Power
P19
P81
Finisher
P45
P12
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P73
Fast Starter
P2
P98
Pace
P1
P11
Late Fighter
P9
GLOBAL
P48
Versatility
P17
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
HooperJr.
4.39Landed / min2.00
3.07Absorbed / min4.33
48%Accuracy42%
41%Defense54%
0.13KD / 150.00
0.67KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
HooperJr.
2.82TD / 152.00
8.05TD att / 153.00
35%TD accuracy67%
50%TD defense50%
5:23Control / 151:10
2.01Sub att / 150.00
Targets
HooperJr.
Head72%|30%
Body18%|27%
Leg10%|43%
Position
HooperJr.
Distance60%|90%
Clinch12%|10%
Ground27%|0%
Ranking evolution Hooper Jr.
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Chase Hooper
Chase Hooper's game runs through the mat, where his top control and the ability to grind out position stand out, and his ground work has been trending upward. He's active off his back too, scrambling up when put on the bottom, and carries a live submission threat. At 8-4 in the UFC with four wins in his last five, his defensive habits have also been sharpening.
Lance Gibson Jr.
Lance Gibson Jr. arrives at 9-2 across all organizations after dropping his UFC debut to the No. 50-ranked opponent. His most notable recent quality is durability, having held up well against incoming damage, and he hasn't been stopped in his recent fights.
Matchup Read
Standing, Gibson's chin gives him room to absorb exchanges, and Hooper's 5 cm reach edge shapes the range early. The ground is where Hooper's tools stack up: if he closes distance and gets Gibson down, his top pressure, submission hunting, and get-up ability all come into play. Gibson's proven durability could force Hooper to grind for position rather than find a quick finish, dragging exchanges into deeper water.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Hooper uses his length to manage range or Gibson closes and tests the durability gap.
- Grappling: how quickly Hooper can change levels and establish top position against the cage.
- Late rounds: whether Gibson's damage-absorption keeps him upright as Hooper works to grind and hunt submissions.
Key Uncertainty
With only one UFC fight on Gibson's record, there's a thin body of top-level tape to judge how he holds up against a grappler of Hooper's caliber over a full contest.