← UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03-28
62.6%
Model
55.4%
Market
1.74
Odds
+7.2
Edge (pp)
established · 18 UFC fightsestablished · 18 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P74
Striking Initiative
P42
P86
Volume
P68
P84
Striking Efficiency
P40
P91
Range Sniper
P81
P96
Kickboxing
P56
P13
Clinch Striking
P13
P78
Defensive Striking
P57
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P1
Wrestling
P30
P26
Pressure Wrestling
P36
P9
Top Control
P28
P20
Submission
P65
P93
Anti-Wrestling
P36
P94
Grappling Defense
P24
P36
Scrambler
P18
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P88
Power
P96
P38
Finisher
P91
P75
Damage Resistance
P78
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P32
Fast Starter
P58
P12
Pace
P36
P88
Late Fighter
P64
GLOBAL
P24
Versatility
P31
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AdesanyaPyfer
4.02Landed / min3.48
3.20Absorbed / min3.16
48%Accuracy42%
56%Defense54%
0.62KD / 151.20
0.09KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AdesanyaPyfer
0.05TD / 150.96
0.43TD att / 153.84
11%TD accuracy25%
77%TD defense50%
0:29Control / 151:13
0.14Sub att / 150.96
Targets
AdesanyaPyfer
Head49%|66%
Body21%|26%
Leg30%|8%
Position
AdesanyaPyfer
Distance92%|90%
Clinch5%|2%
Ground3%|7%
Ranking evolution Adesanya Pyfer
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Israel Adesanya
Adesanya brings a tested resume, with a win over the No. 1-ranked opponent on his record and a 24-5 overall mark. He owns a 13cm reach advantage and the longer frame, his striking volume has been trending upward lately, and he offers a bit of extra threat both in getting the fight down and in keeping it standing.
Joe Pyfer
Pyfer arrives on a three-fight win streak at 15-3 overall and 6-1 in the UFC, taking four of his last five. His recent run has carried real finishing momentum and a growing submission threat off the mat, and his defensive work has been sharpening over that same stretch.
Matchup Read
Adesanya's tested experience against elite names meets a Pyfer surge built on finishes and grappling danger. The long reach and frame let Adesanya fight at range, where his rising volume works, and his takedown defense matters against Pyfer's push to get the fight down. If Pyfer closes and drags it to the mat, his recent submission threat becomes the central danger. Range control versus mat time decides this.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Adesanya can use the 13cm reach to keep Pyfer pinned at the end of his punches.
- Grappling: whether Pyfer can close distance and get the fight down, where his submission threat lives.
- If it hits the mat: watch how quickly Pyfer hunts a finish versus Adesanya working back to his feet.
Key Uncertainty
Adesanya has been out for nearly 14 months, and a layoff of that length is worth noting as a genuine unknown over how he performs on return, even if its effect can't be assumed.