← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Abubakar Vagaev vs Saygid Izagakhmaev
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
Abubakar VagaevLow Data
55.7%
Model
68.9%
Market
1.40
Odds
-13.2
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P2
Volume
P0
Striking Efficiency
P35
Range Sniper
P9
Kickboxing
P12
Clinch Striking
P78
Defensive Striking
P53
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P76
Pressure Wrestling
P100
Top Control
P67
Submission
P58
Anti-Wrestling
P1
Grappling Defense
P58
Scrambler
P36
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P3
Finisher
P45
Damage Resistance
P41
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P43
Pace
P31
Late Fighter
P67
GLOBAL
Versatility
P43
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
VagaevIzagakhmaev
—Landed / min1.33
—Absorbed / min1.73
—Accuracy59%
—Defense59%
—KD / 150.00
—KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
VagaevIzagakhmaev
—TD / 154.00
—TD att / 1510.00
—TD accuracy40%
—TD defense100%
—Control / 155:18
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
VagaevIzagakhmaev
Head—|55%
Body—|45%
Leg—|0%
Position
VagaevIzagakhmaev
Distance—|40%
Clinch—|50%
Ground—|10%
Ranking evolution Vagaev Izagakhmaev
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Abubakar Vagaev
Vagaev enters on a three-fight win streak with a 24-4 record across all organizations and a win over the No. 31-ranked opponent, giving him the stronger track record against quality welterweight opposition heading into his UFC debut.
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Izagakhmaev carries a 22-3 all-organizations record and brings real danger once the fight hits the mat, with a submission threat from top position and the ability to close out a fight before the scorecards rather than coasting to a decision.
Matchup Read
Izagakhmaev's finishing threat on the ground meets Vagaev's need to keep exchanges where he can use the experience that built his résumé. If Izagakhmaev gets the fight to the mat, his submission danger and finishing ability become the central factor; if Vagaev can keep it standing or scrambling free, the quality of opposition he's faced tilts the longer exchanges his way across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Izagakhmaev can drag it down and work toward a submission, or Vagaev forces it back to the feet.
- Finishing windows: watch if Izagakhmaev threatens an early stoppage before the fight settles into a paced three rounds.
- Late rounds: whether Vagaev's exposure to tougher opposition shows as the fight stretches into the third.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this matchup is limited by thin UFC sample size on both sides, with Vagaev making his promotional debut and Izagakhmaev holding just one UFC appearance to date.