← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Magomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
66.3%
Model
81.4%
Market
1.18
Odds
-15.1
Edge (pp)
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P58
Striking Initiative
P85
P36
Volume
P68
P72
Striking Efficiency
P94
P46
Range Sniper
P88
P70
Kickboxing
P25
P69
Clinch Striking
P60
P56
Defensive Striking
P19
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P16
Wrestling
P8
P66
Pressure Wrestling
P3
P89
Top Control
P8
P9
Submission
P49
P99
Anti-Wrestling
P40
P99
Grappling Defense
P21
P75
Scrambler
P67
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P83
Power
P100
P14
Finisher
P96
P76
Damage Resistance
P42
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P28
Fast Starter
P19
P60
Pace
P15
P54
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P90
Versatility
P29
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AnkalaevGuskov
3.73Landed / min4.17
2.61Absorbed / min3.30
54%Accuracy55%
57%Defense45%
0.65KD / 151.58
0.09KD abs / 150.53
Grappling / Wrestling
AnkalaevGuskov
0.65TD / 150.00
3.17TD att / 150.00
21%TD accuracy—
88%TD defense57%
3:40Control / 151:06
0.00Sub att / 151.05
Targets
AnkalaevGuskov
Head55%|89%
Body28%|6%
Leg18%|5%
Position
AnkalaevGuskov
Distance72%|55%
Clinch11%|9%
Ground17%|36%
Ranking evolution Ankalaev Guskov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Magomed Ankalaev
Ankalaev arrives off a résumé built against top-tier light heavyweights, with his last win coming over the No. 1-ranked opponent and his only recent loss to the No. 2. He defends takedowns well enough to keep exchanges standing and has shown the chin to eat shots and stay in the fight.
Bogdan Guskov
Guskov rides a four-fight win streak and carries real stopping power, with his finishing rate the standout trait here. His defensive work has been sharpening, and his striking output has been trending upward across recent outings. His UFC wins have come against the lower end of the rankings.
Matchup Read
Ankalaev brings the tested body of work against ranked competition, but Guskov owns the sharper finishing tools for this matchup. The central question is whether Ankalaev's takedown defense and durability let him weather Guskov's power and drag the fight into deep water, where his experience over five rounds matters. If Guskov lands clean early, his finishing threat is the fastest route to end it; if not, the championship rounds favor the man accustomed to them.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Guskov can land clean power shots before the fight settles into a rhythm Ankalaev dictates.
- Takedown battle: how often Ankalaev chooses to change levels to take Guskov's power out of the equation.
- Late rounds: whether the fight reaches rounds four and five and how Guskov's output holds against a five-round pace.