← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Nurullo Aliev vs Mike Davis
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
57.7%
Model
65.5%
Market
1.47
Odds
-7.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P23
Striking Initiative
P46
P12
Volume
P34
P6
Striking Efficiency
P76
P1
Range Sniper
P78
P3
Kickboxing
P51
P38
Clinch Striking
P35
P50
Defensive Striking
P43
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P68
Wrestling
P86
P66
Pressure Wrestling
P52
P98
Top Control
P68
P17
Submission
P41
P76
Anti-Wrestling
P78
P69
Grappling Defense
P51
P84
Scrambler
P90
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P6
Power
P92
P2
Finisher
P85
P55
Damage Resistance
P87
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P95
Fast Starter
P88
P81
Pace
P66
P81
Late Fighter
P8
GLOBAL
P34
Versatility
P84
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
AlievDavis
2.33Landed / min4.66
1.73Absorbed / min4.84
42%Accuracy54%
59%Defense56%
0.00KD / 150.71
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
AlievDavis
2.00TD / 152.83
3.67TD att / 155.66
55%TD accuracy50%
80%TD defense59%
7:36Control / 154:18
0.33Sub att / 150.88
Targets
AlievDavis
Head81%|64%
Body14%|27%
Leg5%|9%
Position
AlievDavis
Distance67%|74%
Clinch8%|8%
Ground26%|19%
Ranking evolution Aliev Davis
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Nurullo Aliev
Nurullo Aliev enters unbeaten at 11-0, 3-0 in the UFC, riding an 11-fight win streak. His strongest tool is top control once the fight hits the mat, where he grinds and holds position. His striking output has been climbing lately, and he backs that with sharp distance management and solid stand-up defense. His recent form shows no dip in level.
Mike Davis
Mike Davis sits at 12-2 overall and 4 wins in his last 5 UFC bouts. His calling card is the ability to end fights early rather than leave them to the judges, and he brings a bit more volume and forward pressure on the feet. His defensive work has been tightening up recently.
Matchup Read
Davis carries the proven finishing threat and a track record of closing fights, but the matchup-specific edges tilt toward Aliev's grappling. The fight splits cleanly by phase: on the feet, Davis's pressure and output meet Aliev's range work and defense, while any trip to the mat hands Aliev his control game. Davis needs to keep it standing and find his finish before Aliev imposes position over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Aliev can close distance and get Davis down, or Davis keeps it upright to chase his finish.
- Early striking: if Davis's forward pressure and volume force Aliev to trade rather than manage range.
- Late rounds: whether Aliev's top time accumulates on the cards as the third round approaches.
Key Uncertainty
Davis comes in after 12.4 months out of competition, a longer-than-usual layoff that adds some question to how sharp he looks against Aliev's steady recent activity.