← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Sam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
78.2%
Model
77.5%
Market
1.24
Odds
+0.7
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
established · 20 UFC fightsestablished · 20 fights
STRIKING
P15
Striking Initiative
P70
P39
Volume
P87
P5
Striking Efficiency
P54
P32
Range Sniper
P86
P14
Kickboxing
P77
P22
Clinch Striking
P0
P33
Defensive Striking
P92
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P49
Wrestling
P13
P45
Pressure Wrestling
P45
P78
Top Control
P35
P95
Submission
P33
P47
Anti-Wrestling
P56
P20
Grappling Defense
P86
P26
Scrambler
P1
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P78
Power
P82
P92
Finisher
P70
P50
Damage Resistance
P30
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P53
Fast Starter
P10
P29
Pace
P28
P36
Late Fighter
P95
GLOBAL
P12
Versatility
P53
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PattersonPonzinibbio
2.60Landed / min4.78
3.11Absorbed / min4.68
38%Accuracy42%
49%Defense62%
0.55KD / 150.73
0.00KD abs / 150.46
Grappling / Wrestling
PattersonPonzinibbio
1.10TD / 150.60
2.20TD att / 152.18
50%TD accuracy27%
0%TD defense71%
2:27Control / 150:46
1.10Sub att / 150.00
Targets
PattersonPonzinibbio
Head75%|71%
Body13%|13%
Leg13%|17%
Position
PattersonPonzinibbio
Distance93%|95%
Clinch3%|2%
Ground4%|3%
Ranking evolution Patterson Ponzinibbio
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Sam Patterson
Sam Patterson comes in 4-2 in the UFC, winning four of his last five, and carries real finishing ability, especially off his back or from top position where his submission threat is live. He's the longer, taller man here, with a 13 cm reach advantage to work behind at range.
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio owns a deep 30-13 overall record and a long run against quality welterweight competition. He defends takedowns well and prefers to keep things standing, where his output and forward pressure are assets, and his ground control has been trending upward in recent outings.
Matchup Read
Ponzinibbio brings the tested resume and the sharper tools for keeping this upright, where his volume and pressure play; Patterson's clearer matchup-specific edge is his finishing, particularly his submission threat if the fight hits the mat. That tension defines it: Ponzinibbio's takedown defense directly challenges Patterson's path to the ground. If Patterson can't drag it down, he's fighting at range behind his reach against Ponzinibbio's forward output over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Patterson can complete takedowns or threaten submissions against Ponzinibbio's defensive wrestling and preference to stay standing.
- Striking at range: whether Patterson uses his 13 cm reach to control distance, or Ponzinibbio closes it and lands volume on the inside.
- Finishing windows: whether Patterson's stoppage threat forces an early mistake before the fight settles into Ponzinibbio's pace.
Key Uncertainty
Ponzinibbio returns from 14.7 months out, a longer-than-usual layoff that makes his current sharpness and timing harder to read coming into this bout.