← UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · 2026-03-21
56.1%
Model
69.7%
Market
1.38
Odds
-13.6
Edge (pp)
provisional · 4 UFC fightsprovisional · 4 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P14
Striking Initiative
P75
P18
Volume
P77
P96
Striking Efficiency
P72
P62
Range Sniper
P94
P97
Kickboxing
P60
P41
Clinch Striking
P22
P76
Defensive Striking
P30
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P6
Wrestling
P68
P14
Pressure Wrestling
P24
P7
Top Control
P66
P17
Submission
P97
P2
Anti-Wrestling
P43
P15
Grappling Defense
P20
P25
Scrambler
P28
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P29
Power
P89
P33
Finisher
P90
P63
Damage Resistance
P45
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P4
Fast Starter
P69
P1
Pace
P52
P45
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P21
Versatility
P60
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
PagePatterson
2.23Landed / min4.79
1.77Absorbed / min4.71
58%Accuracy47%
57%Defense49%
0.00KD / 151.22
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
PagePatterson
0.00TD / 152.44
1.25TD att / 152.44
0%TD accuracy100%
65%TD defense0%
1:02Control / 152:02
0.00Sub att / 152.44
Targets
PagePatterson
Head63%|83%
Body23%|8%
Leg13%|8%
Position
PagePatterson
Distance91%|95%
Clinch7%|0%
Ground2%|5%
Ranking evolution Page Patterson
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michael Page
Michael Page keeps the fight where he wants it, with reliable takedown defense that lets him stay on the feet. His 24-3 record and recent win over the No. 10-ranked opponent mark the strongest body of work against quality competition in this pairing.
Sam Patterson
Sam Patterson brings a clear route to the mat and has been finishing fights, with his striking volume climbing and real knockout power on recent showings. He rides a four-fight win streak and a steady run of form at 14-2, though his opposition has been modest regional level.
Matchup Read
Patterson's push to get it down meets Page's takedown defense head-on, and that collision likely decides things. If Page keeps it standing, he dictates range and denies Patterson his grappling. If Patterson lands his entries, his finishing momentum and recent power become live threats. Patterson's rising output tests whether Page can keep stuffing shots and reset to open space over the course of the fight.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Patterson can complete his level changes or Page stuffs them and forces a standing fight.
- Early striking: how Patterson's climbing volume and power land against Page's range and movement.
- Late rounds: whether Page can keep resetting to open space as Patterson keeps pressing forward.