← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Steve Erceg vs Ramazan Temirov
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07-25
63.6%
Model
50.1%
Market
1.92
Odds
+13.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P71
Striking Initiative
P82
P82
Volume
P90
P87
Striking Efficiency
P53
P77
Range Sniper
P93
P85
Kickboxing
P66
P57
Clinch Striking
P44
P62
Defensive Striking
P77
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P38
Wrestling
P42
P66
Pressure Wrestling
P11
P44
Top Control
P7
P55
Submission
P6
P81
Anti-Wrestling
P51
P62
Grappling Defense
P73
P47
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P12
Power
P99
P25
Finisher
P42
P54
Damage Resistance
P50
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P9
Fast Starter
P55
P57
Pace
P25
P68
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P77
Versatility
P29
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ErcegTemirov
4.64Landed / min4.37
4.07Absorbed / min3.93
48%Accuracy40%
56%Defense59%
0.13KD / 152.52
0.25KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
ErcegTemirov
1.13TD / 150.84
4.02TD att / 151.68
28%TD accuracy50%
67%TD defense100%
1:44Control / 150:24
0.38Sub att / 150.00
Targets
ErcegTemirov
Head74%|77%
Body18%|22%
Leg8%|1%
Position
ErcegTemirov
Distance89%|85%
Clinch10%|12%
Ground2%|4%
Ranking evolution Erceg Temirov
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Steve Erceg
Steve Erceg brings real finishing danger once the fight hits the mat, where his submission threat becomes a factor. He owns a sizable physical advantage, with 13 cm of reach and 10 cm of height on his opponent, and his striking output has been climbing. He beat the No. 11-ranked opponent, with his last loss coming to the No. 3.
Ramazan Temirov
Ramazan Temirov keeps fights standing, with strong takedown defense that frustrates attempts to drag him down. He carries slightly better finishing ability overall and has absorbed damage well in recent outings. He rides an 11-fight win streak across all organizations at 19-3, and is 2-0 in the UFC with a win over the No. 17-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Standing, Temirov's ability to stay upright keeps the fight in open space, where Erceg's 13 cm of reach shapes the exchanges but Temirov holds the edge in ending things. The ground tells a different story: if Erceg can change levels and get it down, his submission threat becomes the central danger, which is precisely what Temirov's takedown defense is built to deny. The fight likely hinges on whether Erceg can take it where his finishing lives.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Erceg's level changes get through Temirov's takedown defense, or stall against the fence.
- Early striking: how Erceg uses his reach to manage range before Temirov closes and looks for his own finish.
- Late rounds: whether Temirov's recent durability holds up over three rounds against Erceg's rising volume.
Key Uncertainty
Temirov's reading is harder to pin down given only two UFC fights on his record and a layoff of nearly 17 months since his last outing, both of which limit how much his recent form says about this matchup.