AIErceg's recent résumé is thinner, but Elliott owns the clearer matchup-specific tools: his push to get it do…

61.9%

Model

79.4%

Market

1.21

Odds

-17.5

Edge (pp)

Steve Erceg

DEC

61.9%38.1%

Tim Elliott

DISTANCE KICKBOXER

Kickboxing

limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights

Style Matchup

HIGH-PACE GRINDER

Pace · Top Control · Wrestling Pressure

established · 21 UFC fightsestablished · 21 fights

STRIKING

P51

Striking Initiative

P71

Volume

P43

P71

Striking Efficiency

P18

P63

Range Sniper

P12

P80

Kickboxing

P15

P69

Clinch Striking

P84

P40

Defensive Striking

P68

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P39

Wrestling

P96

P66

Pressure Wrestling

P74

P45

Top Control

P69

P57

Submission

P71

P77

Anti-Wrestling

P63

P46

Grappling Defense

P32

P52

Scrambler

P94

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P13

Power

P10

P32

Finisher

P23

P45

Damage Resistance

P99

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

Fast Starter

P98

P53

Pace

P91

P22

Late Fighter

P59

GLOBAL

P54

Versatility

P63

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

ErcegElliott

4.00Landed / min3.37

3.79Absorbed / min2.65

46%Accuracy45%

52%Defense58%

0.14KD / 150.12

0.29KD abs / 150.00

Grappling / Wrestling

ErcegElliott

1.15TD / 153.71

4.16TD att / 157.77

28%TD accuracy48%

63%TD defense59%

1:55Control / 154:43

0.43Sub att / 151.12

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Erceg Elliott

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Steve Erceg

Steve Erceg beat lower-ranked opposition his last time out and sits at 4-3 in the UFC, with his only recent loss coming against the No. 3-ranked opponent. He carries a reach advantage of 5 cm in this one, giving him length to work behind at range.

Tim Elliott

Tim Elliott arrives on a two-fight streak, 4 of his last 5 UFC wins, with his latest victory over the No. 14-ranked opponent. His recent run shows real finishing momentum and an active submission threat, backed by his ability to drag fights to the mat and grind from top position. Durable of late and steady on the gas tank.

Matchup Read

Erceg's recent résumé is thinner, but Elliott owns the clearer matchup-specific tools: his push to get it down meets Erceg's length, and if Elliott lands his entries, his top control and submission threat become the central danger. Erceg's reach and the southpaw-orthodox angle give him room to keep it standing, which is where he needs to keep it. Deep into three rounds, Elliott's steadier tank adds weight.

What to Watch

Grappling: whether Elliott can close the reach gap and complete his level changes, or Erceg forces the fight to stay standing.
Scrambles: if it hits the mat, watch whether Elliott establishes top control and hunts submissions or Erceg works back up.
Late rounds: how both hold pace across three rounds, with Elliott's cardio growing in value if it goes long.

Steve Erceg vs Tim Elliott