Early on, Prates carries the heavier threat, with knockout power and growing volume behind a 13 cm reach edge that lets him work from range. Della Maddalena needs to close that distance and lean on his own pressure and output to drag Prates into sustained exchanges. If Prates starts to feel the striking slipping, his path to the mat becomes relevant. Over a five-round fight, who dictates range and pace early shapes the rest.

Salkilld's forward pressure and output meet a southpaw in Dariush who has shared the cage with ranked opposition, so the open-stance exchanges and who controls the center matter early. Salkilld's cardio and late-round pace loom larger across three rounds, and his finishing threat is sharpened by Dariush's recent exposure to a stoppage loss. The 8 cm reach gap gives Salkilld room to work at range if he keeps distance honest.

Erceg's recent résumé is thinner, but Elliott owns the clearer matchup-specific tools: his push to get it down meets Erceg's length, and if Elliott lands his entries, his top control and submission threat become the central danger. Erceg's reach and the southpaw-orthodox angle give him room to keep it standing, which is where he needs to keep it. Deep into three rounds, Elliott's steadier tank adds weight.

The early going is where Rahiki's finishing threat bites hardest, while Schmid's 10 cm height advantage gives him length to manage the exchanges and keep things at distance. If Schmid uses his frame to control range and drag the fight into the later rounds, he blunts Rahiki's path to a stoppage. If Rahiki closes the gap and lands inside that length, his ability to end fights becomes the deciding factor across three rounds.

Pericic's forward pressure and knockout power meet Gaziev's experience against sharper opposition. The feet are where Pericic's advantages concentrate: volume, power, and a chin that has absorbed shots recently. Gaziev's edge is the quality of rooms he's shared, having faced and beaten ranked-level names. Over three rounds, the question is whether Gaziev's seasoning against better opponents offsets Pericic's output and finishing threat in the exchanges.

The early rounds carry Tuivasa's power and durability on the feet, while Sutherland's value grows the longer he can drag this to the canvas. The central question is whether Sutherland can close distance and change levels against a fighter whose takedown defense is built to keep it standing. If the fight stays vertical, Tuivasa's range control and chin shape it; if Sutherland lands his entries, the ground is his territory.

Bryczek brings the deeper overall résumé, but Rowston holds the sharper matchup-specific tools. The central tension is Bryczek's push to get the fight down against the man who is most dangerous once grappling starts: if Bryczek completes takedowns, he's entering Rowston's submission territory. Standing, Rowston's reach and pressure let him work behind his jab, so Bryczek's path runs through closing that gap and avoiding extended time on the mat.

Tafa brings the longer cage-tested résumé, while Christian owns the sharper matchup-specific tools. The fight turns on where it's fought: Christian's reach and height let him work from outside, and if he drags it to the ground his submission threat becomes the central danger. Tafa's recent durability matters most if he can weather early exchanges and keep this upright, forcing Christian to trade at a range where Tafa's rising output can factor in across three rounds.

The early rounds favor Malkoun's path to close distance, change levels and grind from top position, where his control takes away Meerschaert's room to operate. The longer any exchange stays standing or the fight hits the mat loosely, the more Meerschaert's finishing threat becomes the deciding factor, since he can turn a single opening or scramble into a stoppage from almost anywhere. Length and the stance mismatch shape the range Malkoun must fight through to get inside.

The split is phase-based: Thicknesse's rising volume and takedown-and-control tools give him routes early and in the middle, while Morales's cardio makes the later going more his territory over three rounds. If Thicknesse can put Morales on his back and grind, he controls where the fight happens. If Morales keeps it standing and drags it long, his pace tilts the closing stretch.

Standing, Schultz needs to work around Johnston's 5 cm height and keep exchanges on his terms; the ground is where Johnston's edge lives, between his finishing threat off the mat and his ability to end fights early. If scrambles hit the canvas, Schultz has to manage position carefully rather than get drawn into Johnston's submission game. Over three rounds, Schultz's job is to deny those grappling entries and keep this a striking contest.

Gorimbo owns the tested UFC résumé and the ground tools, but Micallef carries the sharper matchup-specific weapons. If Gorimbo plants Micallef on the mat, his top control decides exchanges, and his escapes blunt any bottom submission attempts. Keeping it standing serves Micallef, where his volume and late-fight pace can compound across three rounds against Gorimbo's cleaner range work. The southpaw-orthodox angle reshapes entries for both.

Steele's finishing threat meets Mar Fan's pace and length. If Steele lands early and forces the exchanges he wants, his power shortens the night. The longer it runs, the more Mar Fan's reach, volume and cardio should compound, and his top control gives him a route to grind out rounds. Over three rounds, the question is whether Steele connects before Mar Fan's output and conditioning take over.