← UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05-02
73.0%
Model
58.7%
Market
1.64
Odds
+14.3
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
STRIKING
P44
Striking Initiative
P28
P39
Volume
P73
P12
Striking Efficiency
P9
P4
Range Sniper
P36
P9
Kickboxing
P27
P34
Clinch Striking
P15
P29
Defensive Striking
P55
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P47
Wrestling
P25
P80
Pressure Wrestling
P42
P62
Top Control
P22
P37
Submission
P53
P18
Anti-Wrestling
P91
P20
Grappling Defense
P59
P34
Scrambler
P44
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P7
Power
P40
P10
Finisher
P51
P52
Damage Resistance
P67
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P84
Fast Starter
P3
P93
Pace
P22
P3
Late Fighter
P99
GLOBAL
P13
Versatility
P11
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
ThicknesseMorales
3.33Landed / min3.37
2.80Absorbed / min3.95
42%Accuracy36%
50%Defense54%
0.00KD / 150.20
0.00KD abs / 150.20
Grappling / Wrestling
ThicknesseMorales
1.00TD / 150.61
11.00TD att / 151.54
9%TD accuracy40%
50%TD defense59%
3:53Control / 151:01
0.50Sub att / 150.51
Targets
ThicknesseMorales
Head66%|66%
Body20%|25%
Leg14%|9%
Position
ThicknesseMorales
Distance50%|90%
Clinch7%|7%
Ground43%|3%
Ranking evolution Thicknesse Morales
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Colby Thicknesse
Thicknesse comes in on a one-fight win streak and an 8-1 overall mark, with his striking output trending upward lately. His grappling adds comparative tools for this matchup, with modest edges in getting the fight down and working from top position. Recent outings show no dip in form.
Vince Morales
Morales carries a 16-9 all-organizations record but sits 0 for his last 5 in the UFC. His strengths show late: a strong gas tank and the ability to hold pace deep into the fight. His defensive work has been trending upward recently. He has been out for over a year.
Matchup Read
The split is phase-based: Thicknesse's rising volume and takedown-and-control tools give him routes early and in the middle, while Morales's cardio makes the later going more his territory over three rounds. If Thicknesse can put Morales on his back and grind, he controls where the fight happens. If Morales keeps it standing and drags it long, his pace tilts the closing stretch.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Thicknesse can change levels and hold top position, or Morales keeps the fight upright.
- Late rounds: watch if Morales's pace picks up in the third while Thicknesse's early volume holds or fades.
- Early striking: whether Thicknesse's output stays high enough to bank rounds before the fight gets deep.
Key Uncertainty
Reading this is complicated by Thicknesse's thin two-fight UFC sample and by Morales entering off a 13.1-month layoff, both of which limit how confidently current form can be projected.