← UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Josias Musasa vs Colby Thicknesse
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09-27
Josias MusasaLow Data
73.2%
Model
57.7%
Market
1.67
Odds
+15.5
Edge (pp)
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P32
Striking Initiative
P10
P86
Volume
P76
P27
Striking Efficiency
P2
P53
Range Sniper
P11
P61
Kickboxing
P44
P45
Clinch Striking
P43
P33
Defensive Striking
P42
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P30
Wrestling
P23
P35
Pressure Wrestling
P50
P18
Top Control
P0
P2
Submission
P19
P42
Anti-Wrestling
P4
P47
Grappling Defense
P11
P36
Scrambler
P35
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P40
Power
P8
P56
Finisher
P25
P35
Damage Resistance
P42
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P4
Fast Starter
—
P44
Pace
P43
—
Late Fighter
P9
GLOBAL
P15
Versatility
P5
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MusasaThicknesse
3.98Landed / min2.53
4.90Absorbed / min2.73
42%Accuracy30%
33%Defense48%
0.00KD / 150.00
4.59KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
MusasaThicknesse
0.00TD / 150.00
4.59TD att / 158.00
0%TD accuracy0%
100%TD defense50%
0:46Control / 150:00
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MusasaThicknesse
Head23%|47%
Body0%|32%
Leg77%|21%
Position
MusasaThicknesse
Distance100%|92%
Clinch0%|8%
Ground0%|0%
Ranking evolution Musasa Thicknesse
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Josias Musasa
Josias Musasa comes in with an 8-1 record across all organizations and a well-rounded grappling package: he can put opponents on the mat, defend takedowns to keep things where he wants, and carries real finishing ability. A 13 cm reach advantage and a slight lead in striking output and pressure round out a fighter who threatens to end fights early.
Colby Thicknesse
Colby Thicknesse enters at 7-1 across all organizations. His most notable trait in this pairing is durability, having absorbed damage well and avoided any recent stoppage loss, which points to a chin that can weather trouble deep into a fight.
Matchup Read
Both dropped their UFC debuts, so this is a reset for each. Musasa owns the technical tools here: he can dictate where the fight goes, and his finishing threat is amplified by the 13 cm reach edge and his output. Thicknesse's path leans on his ability to absorb punishment and drag Musasa into deeper water. The orthodox-southpaw mismatch reshapes the striking angles as Musasa works behind his length.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Musasa uses his reach and southpaw angles to score cleanly before Thicknesse closes the gap.
- Grappling: which fighter dictates position, since Musasa can both take it down and keep it standing.
- Late rounds: whether Thicknesse's durability lets him drag the fight past Musasa's finishing window.
Key Uncertainty
With each man holding just a single UFC appearance, both losses, there's limited high-level footage to confirm how these tendencies hold up against elite competition.