← UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05-02
60.3%
Model
75.1%
Market
1.28
Odds
-14.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
STRIKING
P67
Striking Initiative
P51
P85
Volume
P13
P49
Striking Efficiency
P55
P76
Range Sniper
P18
P71
Kickboxing
P37
P26
Clinch Striking
P96
P66
Defensive Striking
P32
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P43
Wrestling
P99
P4
Pressure Wrestling
P98
P37
Top Control
P92
P76
Submission
P53
P54
Anti-Wrestling
P65
P74
Grappling Defense
P60
P32
Scrambler
P100
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P50
Power
P33
P47
Finisher
P26
P54
Damage Resistance
P68
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P28
Fast Starter
P87
P22
Pace
P91
P66
Late Fighter
P11
GLOBAL
P52
Versatility
P84
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MicallefGorimbo
4.42Landed / min2.72
4.55Absorbed / min1.32
41%Accuracy61%
57%Defense52%
0.64KD / 150.44
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
MicallefGorimbo
0.64TD / 155.07
0.64TD att / 157.72
100%TD accuracy66%
100%TD defense73%
1:06Control / 158:29
0.64Sub att / 150.44
Targets
MicallefGorimbo
Head63%|51%
Body32%|36%
Leg6%|13%
Position
MicallefGorimbo
Distance95%|48%
Clinch5%|29%
Ground0%|23%
Ranking evolution Micallef Gorimbo
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jonathan Micallef
Micallef rides a four-fight win streak with a 9-1 overall mark and a 2-0 UFC start, coming off three months out. His recent run has been built on finishing and submission threat, and he holds his pace deep into fights while applying volume and forward pressure on the feet as a southpaw.
Themba Gorimbo
Gorimbo, 14-6 overall and 4-3 in the UFC with three wins in his last five, last beat the No. 49-ranked opponent and has been out six months. His strengths live on the mat: strong top control once he lands a takedown, plus the ability to escape bottom position and get back up, with cleaner distance management standing.
Matchup Read
Gorimbo owns the tested UFC résumé and the ground tools, but Micallef carries the sharper matchup-specific weapons. If Gorimbo plants Micallef on the mat, his top control decides exchanges, and his escapes blunt any bottom submission attempts. Keeping it standing serves Micallef, where his volume and late-fight pace can compound across three rounds against Gorimbo's cleaner range work. The southpaw-orthodox angle reshapes entries for both.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Gorimbo can complete takedowns and establish top position, or Micallef threatens submissions off his back before Gorimbo escapes.
- Striking: whether Micallef's pressure and volume close the distance or Gorimbo keeps him on the end of clean shots.
- Late rounds: whether Micallef's pace tells in round three after the earlier exchanges.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights to go on, Micallef's level against this quality of opposition is hard to pin down, leaving his ceiling against a more experienced welterweight an open question.