← UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Themba Gorimbo vs Jeremiah Wells
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11-01
66.1%
Model
56.5%
Market
1.70
Odds
+9.5
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 6 UFC fightslimited · 6 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P55
Striking Initiative
P18
P14
Volume
P7
P55
Striking Efficiency
P3
P20
Range Sniper
P2
P34
Kickboxing
P0
P95
Clinch Striking
P18
P42
Defensive Striking
P21
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P97
Wrestling
P86
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P74
P96
Top Control
P98
P55
Submission
P60
P78
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P83
Grappling Defense
P63
P99
Scrambler
P35
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P40
Power
P76
P31
Finisher
P55
P62
Damage Resistance
P31
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P87
Fast Starter
P93
P93
Pace
P93
P24
Late Fighter
P8
GLOBAL
P89
Versatility
P20
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GorimboWells
3.15Landed / min2.41
1.09Absorbed / min1.31
61%Accuracy43%
57%Defense49%
0.57KD / 150.56
0.00KD abs / 150.56
Grappling / Wrestling
GorimboWells
4.81TD / 153.08
7.36TD att / 157.00
65%TD accuracy44%
82%TD defense80%
9:17Control / 158:29
0.57Sub att / 150.84
Targets
GorimboWells
Head52%|85%
Body34%|15%
Leg14%|0%
Position
GorimboWells
Distance44%|50%
Clinch32%|4%
Ground24%|47%
Ranking evolution Gorimbo Wells
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Themba Gorimbo
Themba Gorimbo comes in 4-2 in the UFC and 14-5 overall, with wins in four of his last five. His striking has been sharpening lately, both in output and in the way he's controlling exchanges, and he can mix in level changes to drag opponents down. An 8cm reach edge gives him room to work at range.
Jeremiah Wells
Jeremiah Wells is 4-2 in the UFC and 12-4 across all organizations, carrying real finishing pop that lets him close fights before the scorecards. A switch-stance fighter, he last fought over 20 months ago.
Matchup Read
Gorimbo owns the more relevant recent résumé and the physical frame, but the sharper matchup-specific question is whether his rising striking and length keep Wells at the end of punches. If Gorimbo works behind his reach and threatens the takedown, he dictates where it happens. Wells' route is his finishing power, so any moment he closes distance or catches a scramble turns the fight quickly.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Gorimbo uses his 8cm reach to fight at range or lets Wells close into punching distance.
- Grappling: whether Gorimbo's level changes land and turn exchanges into top time.
- Danger windows: how Wells handles moments where he can load up with fight-ending power.
Key Uncertainty
Wells enters off more than 20 months out of competition, a long enough absence to leave a genuine question over how he performs in the early going here.