← UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05-02
68.0%
Model
61.8%
Market
1.56
Odds
+6.3
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P26
Striking Initiative
P9
P40
Volume
P27
P67
Striking Efficiency
P83
P91
Range Sniper
P76
P66
Kickboxing
P95
P91
Clinch Striking
P61
P1
Defensive Striking
P23
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P0
Wrestling
P68
P3
Pressure Wrestling
P100
P30
Top Control
P47
P1
Submission
P2
P15
Anti-Wrestling
P9
P21
Grappling Defense
P4
P6
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P94
Power
P26
P94
Finisher
P56
P19
Damage Resistance
P38
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P14
Fast Starter
P50
P4
Pace
P53
P46
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P1
Versatility
P33
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
TuivasaSutherland
3.66Landed / min3.75
4.97Absorbed / min7.50
48%Accuracy52%
44%Defense23%
0.92KD / 150.00
0.69KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
TuivasaSutherland
0.00TD / 154.69
0.34TD att / 1514.06
0%TD accuracy33%
60%TD defense0%
2:00Control / 153:08
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
TuivasaSutherland
Head58%|50%
Body18%|17%
Leg24%|33%
Position
TuivasaSutherland
Distance72%|83%
Clinch24%|17%
Ground4%|0%
Ranking evolution Tuivasa Sutherland
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tai Tuivasa
Tuivasa's game runs through his striking: sharp distance control, solid stand-up defense, and a chin that has held up to heavy exchanges. His takedown defense keeps the fight where he wants it standing, and he's shared the cage with elite heavyweights, including a win over the No. 4-ranked opponent.
Louie Sutherland
Sutherland's main threat is getting the fight to the mat, where he can take exchanges away from a dangerous striker. His output on the feet has been climbing recently, though his experience comes against modest regional opposition, with a 10-5 record across all organizations.
Matchup Read
The early rounds carry Tuivasa's power and durability on the feet, while Sutherland's value grows the longer he can drag this to the canvas. The central question is whether Sutherland can close distance and change levels against a fighter whose takedown defense is built to keep it standing. If the fight stays vertical, Tuivasa's range control and chin shape it; if Sutherland lands his entries, the ground is his territory.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Sutherland can complete level changes or gets stuffed and reset to the feet by Tuivasa's sprawl.
- Early striking: whether Tuivasa uses the southpaw-orthodox angles to control range and keep exchanges at his distance.
- Late rounds: whether Sutherland's rising volume holds up across three rounds or Tuivasa's durability absorbs it.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Sutherland's record, how his takedown offense and rising output translate against this level of opposition is hard to project with confidence.