← UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05-02
60.9%
Model
51.7%
Market
1.86
Odds
+9.2
Edge (pp)
established · 9 UFC fightsestablished · 9 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P43
P92
Volume
P41
P96
Striking Efficiency
P96
P99
Range Sniper
P100
P91
Kickboxing
P97
P52
Clinch Striking
P6
P97
Defensive Striking
P17
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P5
Wrestling
P33
P13
Pressure Wrestling
P2
P2
Top Control
P7
P41
Submission
P16
P1
Anti-Wrestling
P21
P11
Grappling Defense
P82
P8
Scrambler
P14
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P93
Power
P100
P73
Finisher
P95
P91
Damage Resistance
P84
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P79
Fast Starter
P52
P19
Pace
P1
P71
Late Fighter
P7
GLOBAL
P51
Versatility
P41
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MaddalenaPrates
5.33Landed / min3.66
3.78Absorbed / min4.61
53%Accuracy54%
63%Defense48%
0.86KD / 152.10
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
MaddalenaPrates
0.14TD / 150.23
1.00TD att / 150.23
14%TD accuracy100%
63%TD defense82%
0:27Control / 150:43
0.14Sub att / 150.00
Targets
MaddalenaPrates
Head64%|53%
Body26%|21%
Leg9%|26%
Position
MaddalenaPrates
Distance85%|93%
Clinch9%|1%
Ground6%|6%
Ranking evolution Maddalena Prates
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Jack Della Maddalena
Jack Della Maddalena brings pressure and output on the feet, keeping a steady pace behind his volume. His UFC run sits at 8-1, with 4 wins in his last 5, and his last win came against the No. 1-ranked opponent, a top-level result at welterweight.
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates carries real finishing momentum, with knockout power and rising striking output over his recent fights, which stay stable and productive. The longer man by 13 cm in reach, he also offers a route to the mat. He's on a 2-fight streak, 6-1 in the UFC, with a win over the No. 5-ranked opponent.
Matchup Read
Early on, Prates carries the heavier threat, with knockout power and growing volume behind a 13 cm reach edge that lets him work from range. Della Maddalena needs to close that distance and lean on his own pressure and output to drag Prates into sustained exchanges. If Prates starts to feel the striking slipping, his path to the mat becomes relevant. Over a five-round fight, who dictates range and pace early shapes the rest.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Della Maddalena can close the reach gap and get inside Prates's range before taking clean power shots.
- Range management: how often Prates lands from distance versus getting pulled into prolonged, high-volume trades.
- Late rounds: whether the pace holds across five rounds or Prates looks to change levels once the striking tightens up.