← UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Cam Rowston vs Robert Bryczek
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05-02
71.7%
Model
65.9%
Market
1.46
Odds
+5.8
Edge (pp)
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P89
Striking Initiative
P43
P69
Volume
P69
P46
Striking Efficiency
P5
P47
Range Sniper
P42
P29
Kickboxing
P5
P53
Clinch Striking
P42
P43
Defensive Striking
P76
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P22
Wrestling
P42
P16
Pressure Wrestling
P1
P88
Top Control
P10
P55
Submission
P6
P50
Anti-Wrestling
P24
P67
Grappling Defense
P68
P33
Scrambler
P32
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P89
Power
P87
P77
Finisher
P57
P45
Damage Resistance
P38
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P35
Fast Starter
P62
P77
Pace
P18
—
Late Fighter
P5
GLOBAL
P40
Versatility
P12
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
RowstonBryczek
5.84Landed / min3.74
3.05Absorbed / min4.08
45%Accuracy37%
54%Defense60%
1.27KD / 150.56
0.00KD abs / 150.56
Grappling / Wrestling
RowstonBryczek
0.00TD / 150.56
0.00TD att / 150.56
—TD accuracy100%
100%TD defense86%
3:23Control / 151:03
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
RowstonBryczek
Head71%|66%
Body12%|26%
Leg17%|8%
Position
RowstonBryczek
Distance58%|73%
Clinch9%|11%
Ground33%|16%
Ranking evolution Rowston Bryczek
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Cam Rowston
Cam Rowston rides a six-fight win streak and is 2-0 in the UFC, 14-3 overall. His most dangerous tool is finishing threat on the ground, backed by slightly higher striking volume and pressure, cleaner distance management, and a sturdy chin. At 8 cm taller with 8 cm more reach, he owns the frame in this pairing.
Robert Bryczek
Robert Bryczek carries an 18-6 record and sits 1-1 in the UFC, with his last win coming against the No. 33-ranked opponent. His most relevant tool here is the ability to change levels and get the fight to the mat, though he comes in off nearly eight months out of the cage.
Matchup Read
Bryczek brings the deeper overall résumé, but Rowston holds the sharper matchup-specific tools. The central tension is Bryczek's push to get the fight down against the man who is most dangerous once grappling starts: if Bryczek completes takedowns, he's entering Rowston's submission territory. Standing, Rowston's reach and pressure let him work behind his jab, so Bryczek's path runs through closing that gap and avoiding extended time on the mat.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Bryczek's takedown attempts land him in top control or straight into Rowston's submission setups.
- Early striking: can Bryczek close the 8 cm reach gap, or does Rowston keep him pawing at range behind the jab.
- Later rounds: whether the nearly eight-month layoff shows in Bryczek's output and level-change frequency.
Key Uncertainty
Both men have only two UFC fights apiece, so their form against this tier of opposition remains lightly tested and leaves real room for either to over- or under-perform the read.