← UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott
Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10-17
50.8%
Model
33.2%
Market
2.90
Odds
+17.6
Edge (pp)
established · 11 UFC fightsestablished · 11 fights
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
P95
Striking Initiative
P30
P92
Volume
P41
P96
Striking Efficiency
P100
P81
Range Sniper
P100
P99
Kickboxing
P99
P68
Clinch Striking
P13
P82
Defensive Striking
P85
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P1
Wrestling
P7
P10
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P22
Top Control
P1
P12
Submission
P0
P73
Anti-Wrestling
P19
P73
Grappling Defense
P36
P39
Scrambler
P42
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P41
Power
P76
P37
Finisher
P67
P58
Damage Resistance
P59
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P44
Fast Starter
P2
P27
Pace
P0
P77
Late Fighter
P86
GLOBAL
P42
Versatility
P20
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
BoserDiniz
4.82Landed / min3.67
3.00Absorbed / min3.41
54%Accuracy59%
58%Defense58%
0.25KD / 150.27
0.13KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
BoserDiniz
0.00TD / 150.00
0.13TD att / 150.00
0%TD accuracy—
70%TD defense69%
1:08Control / 150:20
0.00Sub att / 150.00
Targets
BoserDiniz
Head48%|74%
Body19%|5%
Leg32%|20%
Position
BoserDiniz
Distance86%|94%
Clinch9%|3%
Ground5%|3%
Ranking evolution Boser Diniz
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Tanner Boser
Boser's game is built around his striking: sharp distance management, solid defensive reads on the feet, and a chin that has held up under fire. His output has been climbing lately, and his work from top position has been trending upward as well. Across all organizations he sits at 22-11.
Jhonata Diniz
Diniz brings the stronger grappling case in this matchup, both in getting the fight to the mat and in working back to his feet when pressed underneath. He carries a 10 cm reach advantage and a frame to match, and owns a tidy 9-2 record across all organizations.
Matchup Read
Standing, Boser's distance control and durability shape the exchanges, and his reads matter against Diniz's length. The ground reverses it: Diniz's path to the mat and his ability to scramble back up when the position sours are his central tools. If Boser keeps it upright and manages the reach gap, his striking governs; if Diniz grounds him, his top game and get-ups become the story across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Boser closes the 10 cm reach gap cleanly or eats shots stepping in.
- Grappling: whether Diniz converts entries to the mat, and whether Boser's improving top work keeps him there.
- Scrambles: how often Diniz returns to his feet when the position turns against him underneath.
Key Uncertainty
Diniz has been out for over a year, a layoff worth noting even if its actual effect on his timing and pace in this fight can't be assumed one way or the other.