← UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott
Mike Malott vs Gilbert Burns
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04-18
64.3%
Model
79.5%
Market
1.21
Odds
-15.1
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 24 UFC fightsestablished · 24 fights
STRIKING
P55
Striking Initiative
P20
P48
Volume
P19
P83
Striking Efficiency
P48
P74
Range Sniper
P38
P90
Kickboxing
P53
P7
Clinch Striking
P56
P66
Defensive Striking
P28
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P70
Wrestling
P73
P57
Pressure Wrestling
P61
P76
Top Control
P68
P80
Submission
P76
P96
Anti-Wrestling
P29
P21
Grappling Defense
P21
P70
Scrambler
P20
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P78
Power
P24
P85
Finisher
P47
P61
Damage Resistance
P17
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P58
Fast Starter
P57
P47
Pace
P45
P19
Late Fighter
P19
GLOBAL
P81
Versatility
P52
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MalottBurns
3.82Landed / min3.15
2.74Absorbed / min3.64
54%Accuracy48%
57%Defense52%
0.70KD / 150.20
0.00KD abs / 150.51
Grappling / Wrestling
MalottBurns
1.87TD / 152.12
3.27TD att / 155.62
57%TD accuracy38%
25%TD defense54%
2:45Control / 153:33
0.70Sub att / 150.46
Targets
MalottBurns
Head53%|59%
Body23%|22%
Leg24%|19%
Position
MalottBurns
Distance86%|75%
Clinch2%|10%
Ground13%|15%
Ranking evolution Malott Burns
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Mike Malott
Mike Malott carries real finishing ability, riding a three-fight win streak with four wins in his last five UFC outings and a 13-2 overall mark. His ground control and defensive sharpness have both been trending upward lately, he's shown he can take a shot and get back to his feet off his back, and his length gives him room to work at range.
Gilbert Burns
Gilbert Burns owns the deeper résumé, a 22-9 record built against ranked welterweight opposition, with his last win coming over a top-20 opponent. He's gone 1/5 in his last five UFC fights and sits out from 11 months of inactivity.
Matchup Read
Burns brings the tested, ranked-level body of work, but the sharper matchup-specific tools lean toward Malott. Malott's finishing threat and his improving ability to escape bottom position matter against a grappler who historically hunts top control. If Burns drags it down, Malott's get-up work and rising ground game decide whether he stays in danger or resets. On the feet, Malott's reach and improving defense shape the exchanges. His finishing pressure is the central decider.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Malott can scramble back to his feet when Burns establishes top position, or ends up stuck on the bottom.
- Early striking: whether Malott uses his length to keep Burns at range, or Burns closes the gap to grapple.
- Late fight: watch for Burns's output after 11 months out and Malott's finishing pressure as rounds pile up.