← UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Steve Garcia vs David Onama
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11-01
50.6%
Model
56.0%
Market
1.72
Odds
-5.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
established · 8 UFC fightsestablished · 8 fights
STRIKING
P97
Striking Initiative
P77
P82
Volume
P71
P69
Striking Efficiency
P86
P65
Range Sniper
P91
P35
Kickboxing
P61
P5
Clinch Striking
P32
P83
Defensive Striking
P33
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P52
Wrestling
P36
P12
Pressure Wrestling
P55
P24
Top Control
P52
P19
Submission
P47
P15
Anti-Wrestling
P70
P58
Grappling Defense
P29
P81
Scrambler
P88
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P99
Power
P83
P74
Finisher
P55
P13
Damage Resistance
P84
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P80
Fast Starter
P61
P76
Pace
P70
P35
Late Fighter
P24
GLOBAL
P58
Versatility
P53
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
GarciaOnama
4.56Landed / min5.24
1.95Absorbed / min4.73
47%Accuracy51%
62%Defense52%
1.85KD / 150.62
1.32KD abs / 150.15
Grappling / Wrestling
GarciaOnama
1.06TD / 151.08
1.85TD att / 153.56
57%TD accuracy30%
79%TD defense53%
2:43Control / 153:05
0.53Sub att / 150.46
Targets
GarciaOnama
Head75%|80%
Body16%|12%
Leg9%|8%
Position
GarciaOnama
Distance63%|79%
Clinch3%|8%
Ground35%|13%
Ranking evolution Garcia Onama
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Steve Garcia
David Onama arrives on a 4-fight run, most recently beating the No. 13-ranked opponent, and sits at 6-2 in the UFC and 14-2 overall. His grappling is where he shows the most, with ground control that's been trending upward and a reliable knack for scrambling off his back and getting the fight back to the feet.
David Onama
Steve Garcia is 7-5 across all organizations reads 18-5, and he's won all five of his last five UFC outings. His striking volume has been rising, and he pairs that with a deep gas tank over the distance, sharper distance management and stand-up defense, plus the takedown defense to keep exchanges standing. His recent form has held steady without dips.
Matchup Read
Garcia brings the cleaner recent résumé and a 6-fight streak, but the technical split is clear: he'd rather keep this on the feet, where his rising volume, defensive footwork and takedown defense all point, while Onama's route runs through grappling. If Onama gets it down, his top control and the danger in scrambles come alive; if Garcia keeps it standing and the fight goes long, his cardio and output grow in value. The orthodox-southpaw look shifts the angles for both.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Onama can plant Garcia down and hold top position, or Garcia's takedown defense keeps it upright.
- Striking: Garcia's volume and distance control against Onama's pressure across the open-stance angles.
- Late rounds: if the fight stays standing and drags on, watch whether Garcia's gas tank starts dictating pace.