← UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama
Timmy Cuamba vs ChangHo Lee
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11-01
61.1%
Model
52.3%
Market
1.84
Odds
+8.7
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P14
Striking Initiative
P90
P24
Volume
P60
P49
Striking Efficiency
P77
P71
Range Sniper
P32
P49
Kickboxing
P15
P38
Clinch Striking
P95
P78
Defensive Striking
P11
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P52
Wrestling
P67
P74
Pressure Wrestling
P74
P42
Top Control
P58
P2
Submission
P25
P29
Anti-Wrestling
P42
P62
Grappling Defense
P7
P32
Scrambler
P93
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P31
P37
Finisher
P45
P48
Damage Resistance
P51
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P0
Fast Starter
P92
P20
Pace
P95
P69
Late Fighter
P41
GLOBAL
P48
Versatility
P32
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CuambaLee
3.21Landed / min5.38
4.24Absorbed / min3.32
46%Accuracy66%
60%Defense38%
0.39KD / 150.00
0.39KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
CuambaLee
1.54TD / 152.52
5.78TD att / 158.19
27%TD accuracy31%
75%TD defense50%
1:42Control / 154:41
0.00Sub att / 150.63
Targets
CuambaLee
Head64%|55%
Body22%|44%
Leg14%|2%
Position
CuambaLee
Distance82%|20%
Clinch6%|52%
Ground11%|29%
Ranking evolution Cuamba Lee
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Timmy Cuamba
Timmy Cuamba, 9-3 overall but 1-2 in the UFC, brings the sharper distance management and stand-up defense to this one, backed by a five-centimeter reach edge to work behind. He tends to keep exchanges standing, defends takedowns well, and holds up under fire when hit.
ChangHo Lee
ChangHo Lee, 11-1 across all organizations and 2-0 in the UFC, rides a five-fight win streak. He pushes a higher-volume, more pressuring pace on the feet, works effectively from top position once the fight hits the mat, and carries the greater threat to end things before the judges.
Matchup Read
Lee carries the early pressure and finishing danger, while Cuamba's length and stand-up defense grow in value the longer he keeps the fight at range. The central tension is on the mat: Lee wants top control and the finish, but Cuamba's takedown defense is built to deny it. If Cuamba stuffs entries and manages distance behind his reach, this stays a striking match where his defense meets Lee's volume.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Lee's forward pressure and output overwhelm Cuamba's range game or get picked apart at distance.
- Grappling: how often Lee changes levels, and whether Cuamba's takedown defense keeps it standing or he ends up under top control.
- Late rounds: if Cuamba absorbs the early pace without damage, whether his durability lets him settle in as Lee's finishing window closes.
Key Uncertainty
Lee's ceiling is hard to fix with only two UFC fights on record, so how his pressure and top game translate against this level of opposition remains partly untested.