← UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08-22
53.1%
Model
30.1%
Market
3.20
Odds
+22.9
Edge (pp)
provisional · 3 UFC fightsprovisional · 3 fights
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P82
Striking Initiative
P89
P78
Volume
P85
P96
Striking Efficiency
P43
P89
Range Sniper
P39
P96
Kickboxing
P45
P59
Clinch Striking
P64
P76
Defensive Striking
P18
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P8
Wrestling
P92
P32
Pressure Wrestling
P79
P29
Top Control
P76
P1
Submission
P30
P30
Anti-Wrestling
P29
P61
Grappling Defense
P60
P60
Scrambler
P26
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P76
Power
P54
P20
Finisher
P36
P64
Damage Resistance
P64
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P6
Fast Starter
P55
P43
Pace
P97
P45
Late Fighter
P27
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P63
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MederosJones
4.76Landed / min5.94
3.09Absorbed / min4.72
56%Accuracy42%
58%Defense50%
0.33KD / 150.18
0.00KD abs / 150.36
Grappling / Wrestling
MederosJones
0.00TD / 153.42
2.00TD att / 156.30
0%TD accuracy54%
78%TD defense68%
2:08Control / 153:57
0.00Sub att / 150.18
Targets
MederosJones
Head52%|69%
Body19%|22%
Leg28%|8%
Position
MederosJones
Distance85%|76%
Clinch9%|15%
Ground7%|9%
Ranking evolution Mederos Jones
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
MarQuel Mederos
MarQuel Mederos comes in unbeaten in the UFC at 3-0 and 11-1 overall, riding a nine-fight win streak. His most useful tool in this pairing is his work at range, where his stand-up defense and ability to manage distance give him something to build around.
Mason Jones
Mason Jones brings the deeper résumé at 18-2 overall and 4-2 in the UFC, winning four of his last five. He owns the more forceful path to the mat, the sharper recent knockout power, and a 13 cm reach advantage that stretches out the striking exchanges. His recent finishing run adds to that pressure.
Matchup Read
Jones's push to drag it to the mat meets Mederos's range-based stand-up defense, and that collision frames the fight. If Mederos keeps it standing and uses his distance work against the reach, he can stay in his preferred exchanges, though Jones's length and volume complicate that space. Once Jones closes and changes levels, his top pressure and recent power become the decisive factors over three rounds.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Jones can close the 13 cm gap and get Mederos to the mat, or whether Mederos keeps it standing.
- Early striking: whether Mederos's distance management neutralizes Jones's reach and forward volume before power lands.
- Late rounds: whether Jones's finishing pressure builds through round three or Mederos holds his defensive shape over the distance.
Key Uncertainty
Mederos has been out for 14.5 months, over a year of inactivity, which is worth noting as an unverified consideration when reading how sharp his timing and range work look early.