← UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Michael Oliveira vs Oban Elliott
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08-01
Michael OliveiraLow Data
vs Oban Elliott
56.5%
Model
74.6%
Market
1.29
Odds
-18.1
Edge (pp)
No UFC data yet
UFC debut · style profile after first fight
Style Matchup
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
STRIKING
Striking Initiative
P52
Volume
P52
Striking Efficiency
P58
Range Sniper
P38
Kickboxing
P50
Clinch Striking
P37
Defensive Striking
P80
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
Wrestling
P34
Pressure Wrestling
P29
Top Control
P57
Submission
P24
Anti-Wrestling
P8
Grappling Defense
P10
Scrambler
P31
DAMAGE / FINISHING
Power
P25
Finisher
P13
Damage Resistance
P49
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
Fast Starter
P68
Pace
P67
Late Fighter
P4
GLOBAL
Versatility
P38
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
OliveiraElliott
—Landed / min3.57
—Absorbed / min2.10
—Accuracy49%
—Defense61%
—KD / 150.23
—KD abs / 150.23
Grappling / Wrestling
OliveiraElliott
—TD / 150.93
—TD att / 152.57
—TD accuracy36%
—TD defense52%
—Control / 153:57
—Sub att / 150.00
Targets
OliveiraElliott
Head—|67%
Body—|15%
Leg—|18%
Position
OliveiraElliott
Distance—|76%
Clinch—|6%
Ground—|18%
Ranking evolution Oliveira Elliott
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Michael Oliveira
Michael Oliveira arrives unbeaten at 9-0, riding a nine-fight win streak built on finishing ability, closing fights before the scorecards rather than grinding out decisions. He carries a sizable 15 cm reach advantage, giving him real room to work at range. He has not been stopped in his recent fights.
Oban Elliott
Oban Elliott comes in 3-2 in the UFC and 12-4 overall, with 3 wins in his last 5 Octagon appearances. His most meaningful edge in this matchup is a finishing threat on the ground, and his résumé reflects tougher tested competition than Oliveira has faced to date.
Matchup Read
Standing, Oliveira's length and finishing ability shape the exchanges, and his reach gives him a cushion to keep this at distance across three rounds. The ground changes the picture: Elliott's submission threat becomes the central danger if the fight hits the mat, so Oliveira's incentive is to use that frame to keep it standing. Elliott, meanwhile, benefits from closing the gap and dragging it into grappling, where his finishing on the floor comes alive.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether Oliveira uses his reach to control distance or lets Elliott close inside the length.
- Grappling: if the fight hits the floor, watch whether Elliott can work toward a submission or Oliveira scrambles clear.
- Finishing: both carry stoppage threat, so note who forces the first real danger moment before the scorecards.
Key Uncertainty
Oliveira enters on his UFC debut with no Octagon track record, so his nine-fight streak against regional opposition is hard to calibrate against the quality Elliott has already faced at this level.