← UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez
Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · 2026-08-01
53.5%
Model
75.3%
Market
1.28
Odds
-21.8
Edge (pp)
established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights
Style Matchup
established · 14 UFC fightsestablished · 14 fights
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P99
P82
Volume
P99
P98
Striking Efficiency
P96
P99
Range Sniper
P95
P76
Kickboxing
P99
P67
Clinch Striking
P4
P62
Defensive Striking
P76
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P26
Wrestling
P6
P0
Pressure Wrestling
P27
P1
Top Control
P16
P11
Submission
P52
P3
Anti-Wrestling
P77
P6
Grappling Defense
P68
P17
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P100
Power
P70
P99
Finisher
P42
P18
Damage Resistance
P75
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P85
Fast Starter
P39
P18
Pace
P35
P35
Late Fighter
P91
GLOBAL
P25
Versatility
P77
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
MedicRodriguez
5.11Landed / min7.20
3.55Absorbed / min5.31
57%Accuracy49%
56%Defense57%
2.88KD / 150.65
1.08KD abs / 150.28
Grappling / Wrestling
MedicRodriguez
0.36TD / 150.18
0.72TD att / 150.65
50%TD accuracy29%
56%TD defense64%
0:33Control / 150:45
0.00Sub att / 150.09
Targets
MedicRodriguez
Head68%|64%
Body22%|20%
Leg10%|16%
Position
MedicRodriguez
Distance65%|95%
Clinch13%|2%
Ground22%|3%
Ranking evolution Medic Rodriguez
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Uros Medic
Medic brings a strong ability to drag the fight to the mat and a well-established knack for ending fights early, backed by finishing momentum across his recent run. He rides a 3-fight win streak, holds a 4/5 mark in his last five UFC outings, and his gas tank over a longer fight is a real asset. His distance control standing is a modest plus.
Daniel Rodriguez
Rodriguez carries a 20-5 overall record and a 3-fight win streak, with his last win coming against the No. 16-ranked opponent. His ground control has been trending upward recently, and he holds a slight edge in striking volume and forward pressure. He's the longer man here, with an 8 cm reach advantage to work behind.
Matchup Read
Medic's push to get the fight down meets Rodriguez's rising ground control, and that collision likely decides things. If Medic secures top position, his finishing instinct and deeper gas tank over five rounds become central. If Rodriguez keeps it standing, his volume and the 8 cm reach let him work behind pressure at range. Medic's distance defense is the counterweight. Whoever imposes their preferred phase early dictates the pace late.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Medic can complete entries against a Rodriguez ground game that's been improving.
- Early striking: can Rodriguez use his reach and pressure to keep the fight upright and at range.
- Late rounds: how Rodriguez holds up in the championship rounds against Medic's cardio over five.
Key Uncertainty
Rodriguez returns from 12.4 months out, a longer-than-usual layoff that makes it harder to read where his timing and sharpness will sit early in this one.