← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04-04
51.3%
Model
76.9%
Market
1.25
Odds
-25.6
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights
Style Matchup
provisional · 2 UFC fightsprovisional · 2 fights
STRIKING
P53
Striking Initiative
P3
P63
Volume
P25
P68
Striking Efficiency
P9
P82
Range Sniper
P14
P60
Kickboxing
P23
P64
Clinch Striking
P18
P45
Defensive Striking
P23
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P21
Wrestling
P68
P34
Pressure Wrestling
P70
P11
Top Control
P59
P61
Submission
P32
P3
Anti-Wrestling
P35
P38
Grappling Defense
P20
P27
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P67
Power
P23
P65
Finisher
P61
P18
Damage Resistance
P56
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P56
Fast Starter
P80
P27
Pace
P64
P5
Late Fighter
P46
GLOBAL
P38
Versatility
P14
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
CostaNicoll
3.83Landed / min3.00
3.65Absorbed / min6.69
48%Accuracy34%
53%Defense49%
0.59KD / 150.00
0.59KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
CostaNicoll
0.59TD / 152.55
3.56TD att / 1517.85
17%TD accuracy14%
80%TD defense25%
1:14Control / 153:02
0.59Sub att / 150.00
Targets
CostaNicoll
Head58%|85%
Body18%|8%
Leg24%|8%
Position
CostaNicoll
Distance73%|89%
Clinch11%|0%
Ground16%|11%
Ranking evolution Costa Nicoll
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Alessandro Costa
Alessandro Costa's calling card is his takedown defense, keeping exchanges upright where his slight edge in distance management and stand-up defense can work, aided by a 5 cm reach advantage. He sits at 2-3 in the UFC and 14-5 overall, with his recent work coming against modest regional opposition.
Stewart Nicoll
Stewart Nicoll's strength is getting the fight to the mat, and his durability and gas tank hold up as rounds pile on, with a slight edge in closing fights early. He's 0-2 in the UFC but 8-2 across all organizations, his last loss coming against lower-ranked opposition.
Matchup Read
The early rounds tilt toward Costa's striking at range, while Nicoll's cardio and pace grow in value the longer it goes. The pivotal clash is Nicoll's push to get it down against Costa's takedown defense. If Costa keeps it standing, his reach and distance work decide things; if Nicoll drags it to the mat and leans on his tank, the fight shifts to grinding territory where he's more comfortable late.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Nicoll can complete entries or Costa stuffs them and resets to open space.
- Early striking: how often Costa uses his reach to score from range before any level change.
- Late rounds: whether Nicoll's pace holds up and starts dictating position as the fight wears on.
Key Uncertainty
With only two UFC fights on Nicoll's record, there's limited high-level tape to confirm how his takedown game and pace translate against this quality of opposition.