← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Chris Duncan vs Renato Moicano
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04-04
51.8%
Model
63.0%
Market
1.53
Odds
-11.1
Edge (pp)
limited sample · 7 UFC fightslimited · 7 fights
Style Matchup
established · 19 UFC fightsestablished · 19 fights
STRIKING
P61
Striking Initiative
P63
P65
Volume
P59
P50
Striking Efficiency
P72
P59
Range Sniper
P53
P45
Kickboxing
P65
P37
Clinch Striking
P11
P34
Defensive Striking
P80
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P87
Wrestling
P63
P92
Pressure Wrestling
P46
P84
Top Control
P58
P62
Submission
P86
P44
Anti-Wrestling
P64
P28
Grappling Defense
P55
P27
Scrambler
P56
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P77
Power
P10
P59
Finisher
P41
P82
Damage Resistance
P36
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P47
Fast Starter
P80
P90
Pace
P62
P79
Late Fighter
P69
GLOBAL
P63
Versatility
P96
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
DuncanMoicano
4.78Landed / min4.17
4.45Absorbed / min3.57
46%Accuracy49%
53%Defense60%
0.49KD / 150.17
0.00KD abs / 150.33
Grappling / Wrestling
DuncanMoicano
3.17TD / 151.67
7.31TD att / 154.00
43%TD accuracy42%
50%TD defense63%
3:43Control / 153:10
0.73Sub att / 150.50
Targets
DuncanMoicano
Head63%|73%
Body23%|9%
Leg14%|18%
Position
DuncanMoicano
Distance81%|82%
Clinch7%|3%
Ground12%|15%
Ranking evolution Duncan Moicano
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Chris Duncan
Chris Duncan rides a four-fight win streak and sits 6-1 in the UFC, 15-2 overall. His striking output has been climbing, and recent fights have carried real finishing momentum, including submission threats. His work rate and results have held steady with no recent dip. He can also drag opponents to the mat.
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano brings a deep résumé at 12-7 in the UFC and 20-7 overall, with his last win coming over the No. 18-ranked opponent. His defensive work has tightened up over recent fights, and he defends takedowns well enough to keep exchanges standing. He last competed 9.2 months ago.
Matchup Read
Duncan's push to get the fight to the mat meets Moicano's takedown defense, and that collision shapes the night. If Duncan lands his entries, his recent submission threat and finishing form become live on top. If Moicano stuffs them and keeps it standing, his tightened defense counters Duncan's rising volume. The grappling margins here are slim on both sides, so execution on the initial level changes decides where the fight lives.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Duncan's takedown entries put Moicano on his back or get stuffed against the fence.
- Standing: how Duncan's climbing output lands against Moicano's tightened defensive shell at range.
- On top: if Duncan gets the fight down, whether his submission attempts materialize before Moicano scrambles free.