← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Rafael Estevam vs Ethyn Ewing
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · 2026-04-04
Rafael EstevamLow Data
vs Ethyn Ewing
71.5%
Model
44.0%
Market
2.19
Odds
+27.5
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
provisional · 1 UFC fightsprovisional · 1 fights
STRIKING
P4
Striking Initiative
P88
P1
Volume
P90
P6
Striking Efficiency
P98
P1
Range Sniper
P74
P13
Kickboxing
P91
P46
Clinch Striking
P79
P12
Defensive Striking
P24
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P94
Wrestling
P67
P100
Pressure Wrestling
P52
P99
Top Control
P35
P34
Submission
P2
P43
Anti-Wrestling
P45
P45
Grappling Defense
P63
P34
Scrambler
P34
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P10
Power
P38
P6
Finisher
P52
P62
Damage Resistance
P46
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P96
Fast Starter
P27
P60
Pace
P66
P68
Late Fighter
P75
GLOBAL
P24
Versatility
P56
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
EstevamEwing
1.38Landed / min5.67
2.96Absorbed / min5.13
43%Accuracy52%
47%Defense47%
0.00KD / 150.00
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
EstevamEwing
6.33TD / 153.00
16.67TD att / 155.00
38%TD accuracy60%
67%TD defense100%
9:49Control / 151:19
0.33Sub att / 150.00
Targets
EstevamEwing
Head61%|82%
Body26%|12%
Leg13%|6%
Position
EstevamEwing
Distance73%|79%
Clinch8%|21%
Ground19%|0%
Ranking evolution Estevam Ewing
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Rafael Estevam
Rafael Estevam brings an unbeaten 14-0 record across all organizations, 3-0 in the UFC, riding a 14-fight win streak with a quality win over the No. 45-ranked opponent. His central strength is getting the fight to the mat, backed by tidy stand-up defense and range control, and he's the taller man by 5cm.
Ethyn Ewing
Ethyn Ewing carries a 9-fight win streak and won his UFC debut, 9-2 overall. His pressure and output on the feet are his most consistent asset, paired with strong takedown defense to keep exchanges standing. His cardio holds up over the distance and he carries slight finishing danger.
Matchup Read
Estevam's push to drag this to the canvas runs straight into Ewing's takedown defense, and that collision likely decides the fight. If Estevam can't plant him, Ewing's volume and pressure take over on the feet, where his gas tank grows in value late. Estevam's range control and 5cm of height help him manage distance, but repeated stuffed entries would leave him fighting Ewing's fight standing.
What to Watch
- Grappling: whether Estevam converts his level changes or Ewing stuffs the entries and resets to open space.
- Striking: if the fight stays standing, watch Ewing's output climb against Estevam's distance management.
- Late rounds: track whether Ewing's pace holds up as the fight extends and Estevam's takedown attempts pile up.
Key Uncertainty
With only one UFC appearance on Ewing's record, there's limited high-level footage to confirm how his pressure and takedown defense hold up against an opponent of Estevam's caliber.