← UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06-06
75.7%
Model
77.5%
Market
1.24
Odds
-1.8
Edge (pp)
Style Matchup
STRIKING
P96
Striking Initiative
P52
P99
Volume
P49
P74
Striking Efficiency
P92
P93
Range Sniper
P100
P73
Kickboxing
P69
P9
Clinch Striking
P42
P78
Defensive Striking
P70
GRAPPLING / WRESTLING
P11
Wrestling
P21
P16
Pressure Wrestling
P0
P11
Top Control
P0
P41
Submission
P0
P35
Anti-Wrestling
P1
P87
Grappling Defense
P17
P20
Scrambler
P33
DAMAGE / FINISHING
P96
Power
P97
P90
Finisher
P43
P73
Damage Resistance
P41
· style, not skillFIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill
P75
Fast Starter
P1
P55
Pace
P1
P13
Late Fighter
—
GLOBAL
P49
Versatility
P16
Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.
Striking
McGheeYannis
5.50Landed / min3.30
3.64Absorbed / min1.26
45%Accuracy54%
58%Defense74%
0.94KD / 152.36
0.00KD abs / 150.00
Grappling / Wrestling
McGheeYannis
0.31TD / 150.00
2.19TD att / 150.00
14%TD accuracy—
90%TD defense67%
0:54Control / 150:21
0.31Sub att / 150.00
Targets
McGheeYannis
Head69%|57%
Body16%|38%
Leg15%|5%
Position
McGheeYannis
Distance92%|76%
Clinch4%|0%
Ground4%|24%
Ranking evolution McGhee Yannis
AI Matchup Analysis
Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.
Marcus McGhee
Marcus McGhee pairs sharp distance control with reliable stand-up defense, and backs it with the chin to take a shot and the finishing ability to end fights early. He's gone 4-1 in the UFC, with a win over the No. 16-ranked opponent and his lone loss to the No. 3, showing he holds up against quality opposition.
John Yannis
John Yannis carries a clear edge in getting the fight to the mat and arrives with recent finishing momentum, his striking volume also trending upward. He's 10-4 overall and 1-1 in the UFC against regional-level opposition, coming off a win and a quick 1.6-month turnaround.
Matchup Read
McGhee owns the early danger if this stays standing, where his range work, defense and power meet Yannis's rising volume from the southpaw side. Yannis's cleanest route runs through his takedowns, but McGhee's chin and finishing instincts make him a threat in scrambles and exchanges. The central question is whether Yannis can consistently change levels and keep McGhee grounded, or whether McGhee's striking dictates where the fight happens across three rounds.
What to Watch
- Early striking: whether McGhee controls range and defends cleanly against the southpaw volume Yannis has been building.
- Grappling: how often Yannis changes levels and whether he can hold McGhee down rather than just getting brief takedowns.
- Late rounds: whether Yannis's finishing momentum carries into the third or McGhee's power stays live deep.
Key Uncertainty
Yannis has only two UFC fights on record, so how his mat offense and rising volume hold up against this level of opposition is hard to project with confidence.