Bonfim's submission threat and top finishing meet a far more experienced opponent who has shared the cage with the division's best. On the ground, the central danger is Bonfim's finishing ability, and even if he ends up on his back, his get-ups keep him from being controlled there. Over a five-round fight his pace holds up well late, which raises the value of pushing deep water. Muhammad's edge is the quality of competition he has already navigated.

Shahbazyan's rising striking volume meets Allen's submission threat on the mat, and that collision frames the fight. If Shahbazyan keeps it standing, his output and climbing accuracy are his route. Allen's danger grows if he can drag it to the floor, where his finishing ability and his knack for returning to his feet both come into play. Over three rounds, Allen's gas tank adds weight to the later going.

Standing, Ziam's range control and reach edge over a longer frame should let him dictate exchanges and keep things at distance, where his durability further cushions any missteps. The floor shifts the picture: Nolan's submission threat is where he can steal the fight, but Ziam's habit of scrambling back to his feet and his rising top game cut against that. The orthodox-southpaw mix reshapes the angles for both.

Mitchell owns the tested UFC track record, but the matchup-specific tools tilt toward Luna's volume, pace and length on the feet. The pivot point is the mat: Luna can get it down, yet that plays into Mitchell's control game, so putting him on his back carries real risk. If Luna keeps it standing behind his output and reach across three rounds, his cardio edge grows late. Southpaw-orthodox angles shape the exchanges.

Baraniewski's volume and pressure meet Tafa's distance management and reach, and that collision decides the fight. If Baraniewski closes space and keeps the output high, he can drag Tafa into the kind of exchanges where his finishing shows up. If Tafa uses the length to fight at range and keep things clean, his chin gives him room to weather the pressure and stretch this across three rounds.

Costa's recent record and finishing power meet Schnell's edge in the technical wrinkles that matter in grappling. If Schnell looks to drag it down, Costa's takedown defense keeps it where his power lives, and his finishing threat is most acute early. The longer this goes, the more Schnell's cardio and pace over three rounds grow in value, along with his knack for getting back to his feet if he does end up underneath.

McGhee owns the early danger if this stays standing, where his range work, defense and power meet Yannis's rising volume from the southpaw side. Yannis's cleanest route runs through his takedowns, but McGhee's chin and finishing instincts make him a threat in scrambles and exchanges. The central question is whether Yannis can consistently change levels and keep McGhee grounded, or whether McGhee's striking dictates where the fight happens across three rounds.

The early rounds lean on whether Chairez can get this down, because Silva's main job is stuffing entries and keeping it standing, where his distance control is a touch sharper. If the fight stays upright across three rounds, Silva's stand-up defense and Chairez's reach both matter at range. But any time Chairez lands a takedown, his submission threat becomes the central danger, and over a short three-round window that ground game is where he flips the math.

Leavitt's takedown entries and improving top control bring the fight to the mat, but Brito's gas tank and finishing threat make the later going dangerous ground for a grinder to wade into. If Leavitt can impose position early and use his get-up ability to avoid prolonged exchanges, he shapes the pace. The longer it stays competitive and standing, the more Brito's cardio and finishing lean into his favor. Crossed stances will reshuffle the angles.