AIStanding, Ziam's range control and reach edge over a longer frame should let him dictate exchanges and keep …

55.7%

Model

72.5%

Market

1.33

Odds

-16.8

Edge (pp)

Fares Ziam

55.7%44.3%

Tom Nolan

DEC

DEFENSIVE STRIKER

Striking Defense

established · 10 UFC fightsestablished · 10 fights

Style Matchup

VOLUME PRESSURE STRIKER

Volume · Initiative

limited sample · 5 UFC fightslimited · 5 fights

STRIKING

P47

Striking Initiative

P97

P32

Volume

P99

P75

Striking Efficiency

P67

P31

Range Sniper

P57

P66

Kickboxing

P74

P72

Clinch Striking

P65

P89

Defensive Striking

P21

GRAPPLING / WRESTLING

P64

Wrestling

P26

P63

Pressure Wrestling

P33

P54

Top Control

P46

Submission

P45

P44

Anti-Wrestling

P11

P61

Grappling Defense

P36

P97

Scrambler

P23

DAMAGE / FINISHING

P42

Power

P28

P29

Finisher

P41

P82

Damage Resistance

P24

FIGHT DYNAMICS· style, not skill

P74

Fast Starter

P39

P63

Pace

P68

Late Fighter

P27

GLOBAL

P90

Versatility

P25

Fighter profiles as of this fight · percentiles vs established UFC fighters (8+ fights) at that date.

Striking

ZiamNolan

2.87Landed / min5.74

1.53Absorbed / min4.84

53%Accuracy45%

65%Defense48%

0.23KD / 150.00

0.00KD abs / 150.77

Grappling / Wrestling

ZiamNolan

1.73TD / 150.77

4.26TD att / 153.46

41%TD accuracy22%

71%TD defense71%

3:58Control / 151:09

0.46Sub att / 151.92

Targets

Position

Ranking evolution Ziam Nolan

AI Matchup Analysis

Generated by an LLM from structured matchup data. It does not determine the model's win probability.

Fares Ziam

Fares Ziam rides a 6-fight win streak and is 5 for 5 across his last five UFC outings, sitting at 18-4 overall. His game is built on managing range and sharp stand-up defense, backed by a durable chin, and his ground control has been trending upward. He stays dangerous off his back, working back to the feet, and brings recent finishing power plus solid results against better competition.

Tom Nolan

Tom Nolan arrives on a 4-fight streak, 4-1 in the UFC and 10-1 across all organizations. The most notable weapon he carries into this matchup is a recent submission threat, a real danger whenever exchanges hit the mat. He stands as the taller man at lightweight.

Matchup Read

Standing, Ziam's range control and reach edge over a longer frame should let him dictate exchanges and keep things at distance, where his durability further cushions any missteps. The floor shifts the picture: Nolan's submission threat is where he can steal the fight, but Ziam's habit of scrambling back to his feet and his rising top game cut against that. The orthodox-southpaw mix reshapes the angles for both.

What to Watch

Early striking: whether Ziam uses his reach to keep Nolan at range or lets the taller man close and work inside.
Grappling: if the fight hits the mat, how fast Ziam scrambles up before Nolan can chain into a submission.
Across three rounds: whether Nolan can force ground exchanges often enough to make his finishing threat matter.

Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan